Over recent days the view of the market has begun to change, with the reality of strong Brazilian production and anticipated “normal” rains for India removing some of the gloss that had been driving the bulls during April. With yesterday having seen the lowest levels since 24th April as a result, there was understandably some hedge lifting for the open which led to initial gains; however, this quickly gave way to losses once concluded and new recent lows were recorded at 24.23 soon afterwards before the market looked to consolidate. See-saw movement continued through the rest of the morning with a sharp push up to 24.75 seen against modest buying (spec?) before again falling back to sit calmly within the range around 24.50 as we await the arrival of those in the Americas. There was a ripple of movement within the existing range during the early afternoon, however on the whole things remained calm for the flat price, with volumes now being dominated by Jul/Oct’23 rolling ahead of the main index window which commences tomorrow. Prices returned to positive ground during the later stages with Jul’23 touching to 24.65, with prints to 24.68 on the post close though settlement was made at 24.58. Overall, it was a day to change little though should UNICA show strong crop numbers going forward it seems likely we will continue to remain well away from the highs for the time being.
A mixed start to the session quickly saw the market lose opening gains and continue its recent downward path, before halting the decline around the $672.00 mark. With resting orders few and far between to the upside a bounce then followed that saw Aug’23 spike to $681.30, though the move corrected incredibly quickly to underline the change of sentiment to the near-term market prosects which has occurred recently. The late morning/early afternoon became one of quiet consolidation, only broken as specs/day traders returned to send the market down to new recent lows, filling in consumer buying on route to $665.70. A sharp bounce followed against short covering to leave prices sitting back to the centre of the days range, though still a little beneath unchanged, where they remained as we approached the close. Through the flat price swings there was also some noteworthy spread movement with Aug/Oct’23 trading in further to a daily $4.00 low, though the losses were reduced later in the afternoon. White premium values were weaker throughout the day however, with lows seen around $128.00 for the Aug/Jul’23 and only limited recovery during the afternoon to be around $129.00 going out. Aug’23 settlement was at $670.90, maintaining the correction which seems likely to continue barring some fresh bullish news.
