Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 6th May 2026

The day started with lower prices and despite touching 15.35 in the opening minutes Jul’26 soon came under very heavy pressure. Selling was linked to the macro with crude values falling against the most recent suggestion that a peace deal might be attainable, and despite recent suggestion that reduced surplus and El Nino concerns are contributing to the rally it was apparent just how overriding the funds/specs are in the whole process. With the macro under pressure these specs turned seller once more, quickly setting the Jul’26 price back towards 15.00 and unwinding this week’s gains. There was a slowing of the decline around 15.00 as the psychological figure drew some support, however once breeched the pace of selling (and reduced buying) meant that the pace again picked up and the price moved down to the 14.60’s. With prices now more than 0.70 points below last nights settlement level and a chunk of the morning remaining there was some opportunistic short covering appearing, however this merely softened the impact of the selling that continued to pile in from specs. Lows were registered early in the afternoon at 14.45 to prevent the market from seeing a full cent of daily loss, and the fickle spec nature was re-highlighted with some supportive buying as Trumps latest statement sent brent crude back up above $100 per barrel and reduced the daily loss. Progress was steady and with an hour remaining the price had quietly worked its way back up to 14.88 on spec led interest, with most in the trade mere bystanders to the movement as both growers and consumers stood back. The final stages saw mixed activity as traders tidied positions to fit their needs, no easy decision in an uncertain macro world, with the upshot being a close at 14.81 as we await the next macro moves. 

Aug’26 saw lower opening values and for a short while saw the prospect of an island reversal on the chart, though that was averted within the first hour as it touched a high at $450.30. There was a change of sentiment for the market against the latest talk of a potential peace deal being achieved in Iran, and regardless as to whether this time the talk has any more merit than previous iterations the movement was following a familiar path and prices fell further in conjunction with the wider macro. Buying was very limited with consumers well priced and naturally targeting far lower levels, and so the price moved quickly down into the mid $430’s where it remained through late morning. More pressure was applied and sent the price to a $432.50 low soon afterwards, and it was only from here that some respite arrived with day traders covered some shorts while those who had been reducing long exposures took their foot off the pedal and stood back. What followed was an afternoon within a relatively narrow band at the lower end of the range, with some traders more non-comital and holding back. The market was unable to match the recovery of No.11 (driven by recovering energy values) and so the white premium gave back its earlier recovery and slipped to another loss, with Aug/Jul’26 valued near to $111.00 ahead of the close. The call saw no change to the situation and the day ended with recent chart progress long forgotten, Aug’26 settling at $437.20, Aug/Oct’26 at $0.10 premium and the premium valued at $110.70.