Raw Sugar Update

The latest in a growing series of fresh contract lows was registered at 14.04 on the opening, but still a look beneath 14.00 was proving elusive and the price quickly reversed away from this mark and up towards 14.20. Consolidation followed in this area through the middle of the morning, and though the price then eased back to sit at 14.10 it did so on low volume and so did not encourage any fresh fund pressure. The early afternoon then saw prices extended through to new daily highs, the limited resistance enabling the price to move to 14.44 on only limited buying / short covering, before stalling with continuation interest still absent. Outright volumes remained low through the afternoon leaving prices to simply drift slowly back down into the range, with spreads also slow as March/May’26 settled down in the 0.35-point area having earlier swung a few points either side. Having retreated to 14.20 the market managed to hold this region through the final stages with March’26 eventually settling at 14.19 to mark the end of a slow day. This still leaves the situation vulnerable and we await to see whether there will be a more testing look at 14.00 ahead of the weekend. 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.08 14.44 14.04 14.19 0.08 14.22 53,609 479,827
May’26 13.75 14.07 13.71 13.85 0.10 13.87 18,746 169,484
Jul’26 13.71 14.00 13.68 13.79 0.08 13.80 10,543 111,625
Oct’26 13.98 14.25 13.96 14.05 0.07 14.04 5,398 72,499
Mar’27 14.63 14.89 14.61 14.69 0.06 14.70 2,920 39,921
May’27 14.48 14.72 14.48 14.53 0.06 14.51 1,318 21,388
Jul’27 14.49 14.67 14.46 14.51 0.06 14.50 463 15,623
Oct’27 14.84 14.91 14.80 14.75 0.06 14.80 219 13,664
Mar’28 15.35 15.47 15.35 15.31 0.05 15.37 129 4,901
May’28 15.28 15.29 15.21 15.14 0.05 15.21 106 2,256
Jul’28 15.22 15.22 15.22 15.12 0.05 15.22 69 2,134
                 
Total             93,520 933,322

White Sugar Update

The session commenced with March’26 printing either side of unchanged and though light in volume, the consumer buying on show soon proved to be the dominant element and helped the price to move up by around $3. Once the buying was completed prices eased back down into the early range with much of the gain eroding, though it seemed somewhat insignificant in terms of the bigger picture with very little changing hands on an outright basis. Still, it remains the Dec’25/March’26 spread which is generating most of the volume, and today it was the short side that was finding the most aggressive interest to soften the value from its overnight mark of $7.40. This remained the situation when the market rallied to $413.10 through the early part of the afternoon, though this movement was being driven from the No.11 side with the white premium tracking along in the $94.50 area. In the four hours that remained after reaching the highs there remained low interest and this left the value to simply drift within the range. The path of direction remained lower however and as the final 30 minutes arrived a large part of the gain had been erased with March’26 sitting at $407.50. There was no further movement and the session petered out with March’26 settling at $407.40 to leave technical parameters unchanged.   

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Dec’25 412.70 419.40 411.80 412.90 0.20 413.30 10,872 29,438
Mar’26 405.80 413.10 404.90 407.40 2.10 407.80 12,834 63,757
May’26 401.00 408.00 400.50 403.40 3.00 403.30 3,688 24,366
Aug’26 398.30 403.60 397.30 400.30 3.20 399.90 1,108 12,841
Oct’26 396.90 402.20 396.90 399.70 3.00 399.70 347 5,060
Dec’26 400.60 404.80 400.60 403.10 2.80 402.90 157 2,744
Mar’27 406.50 410.80 406.50 408.90 2.70 408.80 102 2,464
May’27 416.10 416.60 416.00 414.50 3.00 416.50 40 888
Aug’27 420.60 421.80 420.60 419.00 3.10 421.80 16 649
Oct’27 424.20 424.70 424.20 422.10 3.10 424.70 9 574
Dec’27 429.40 429.40 429.40 426.40 3.10 429.40 4 328
Mar’28          –              –              –   432.10 3.10 434.70            –   192
May’28          –              –              –   436.10 3.10            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   438.80 3.10            –                –  
Total             29,177 143,447

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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