Resuming after yesterday’s consolidation, the market was immediately back on the front foot with a straight-line push to 21.00 before pausing. Fund and trade buyers have a determination to continue the push off the back of the Dubai conference, and this ensured that the rest of the morning played out positively with May’23 touching 21.04 on a couple of occasions to match the contract high, though lacking the necessary volume to continue onward despite the limited amount of producer hedging showing overhead. The start of the Americas morning initially drew some selling which sent May’23 back to 20.81 and new daily lows, however these were soon picked back up with specs gradually returning to the foreground. Twice the market spiked higher through their efforts, first to 21.14 and then to 21.25, however there didn’t seem to be much interest from the larger funds and sop as the buying eased so prices pulled back to the 21c area. Interestingly this latest move upward saw contrary movement between the flat price and spreads, possibly a sign of near-term fatigue, with May/Jul’23 slipping back to 0.57 points later in the afternoon while Jul/Oct’23 contracted to 0.26 points. The flat price continued in the region of 21c through to the close, settling at 21.02, a positive number despite the weaker spread suggesting that we may be nearing a top for the time being.
The day started positively with May’23 pushing upward to $586.20 during the first 20 minutes, putting yesterday’s malaise quickly behind it and pulling the May/May’23 white premium back to $123 in the process. The picture then calmed for a while with the early gains being maintained, allowing for prices to begin pushing a touch further north towards the end of the morning. This proved to be a false dawn with the move failing to gain any significant traction, and so there was an inevitable round of long liquidation to follow and send values back down through the mid $580’s. Though volume was moderate, it was proving sufficient to keep the market moving ahead with nearby white premiums gaining another couple of dollars as we approached contract highs. A second push into May’23 sent it to its latest high mark at $591.30, and though some selling followed in soon after the positive consensus continued with the rest of the afternoon spent holding the upper half of the range. Settlement at $588.20 leaves the market well positioned still, though with the recent trend seeing one positive day and then one of consolidation we may not see further gains made immediately.
