Raw Sugar Update 

March’26 was sold down to 14.09 during the early stages but again found support in place ahead of 14.00, and positions were covered back soon afterwards to erase the loss and place the market a small distance above overnight levels. The rest of the morning then proved to be quiet as values tracked along within the same range as seen yesterday, awaiting the US morning to see whether the fund would enliven the picture ahead of the weekend. The answer was a resounding no and it was left to smaller traders to drive the movements still through the afternoon, swinging the price back up to a new high of 14.37 before liquidating and sending the value down into the range another time. This left the price languishing a small way above the contract lows through the final part of the day, and while the funds/specs didn’t look to move the value beneath 14.00 it still represented a very poorly look on the chart. There was some selling held back for the close and daily lows were recorded on route to a March’26 settlement at 14.10, leaving the 14.04 mark still firmly in the sights when we resume next week.  

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.20 14.37 14.07 14.10 -0.09 14.13 46,723 483,061
May’26 13.85 14.01 13.72 13.73 -0.12 13.75 16,355 168,113
Jul’26 13.80 13.95 13.68 13.68 -0.11 13.70 7,807 112,211
Oct’26 14.04 14.21 13.95 13.95 -0.10 13.96 4,094 73,052
Mar’27 14.68 14.85 14.59 14.60 -0.09 14.62 1,970 40,214
May’27 14.47 14.64 14.46 14.46 -0.07 14.46 1,053 21,394
Jul’27 14.42 14.62 14.42 14.46 -0.05 14.46 716 15,663
Oct’27 14.70 14.86 14.70 14.71 -0.04 14.71 511 13,694
Mar’28 15.27 15.43 15.27 15.28 -0.03 15.33 377 4,923
May’28 15.11 15.27 15.11 15.12 -0.02 15.20 266 2,267
Jul’28 15.11 15.27 15.10 15.12            –   15.20 171 2,128
                 
Total             80,043 936,720

White Sugar Update 

March’26 started the day below $406.00 in reaction to lower No.11 values, however there was no aggressive selling and before long the market was able to stablise and move away from the lows. Quiet trading prevailed throughout the morning with the flat price steadier while remaining well within existing parameters, highs at $411.60 doing nothing to influence the wider picture.  Prices were retreating from the highs as we moved into the afternoon but then made an unexpected spike back up through the range although this too yielded no continuation. Instead, we repeated the earlier pattern with another retreat to overnight levels by mid-afternoon, reiterating the markets continuing inability to maintain even the small recoveries. Dec’25/March’26 saw another sizable volume of more than 7,500 lots with sellers in the ascendancy and sending the value to intra-day lows at $3.20. Having nudged along just ahead of the lows through the final two hours we saw an equally calm close in which March’26 settled at $405.90, before some post close shenanigans saw new session lows of $404.00. Dec’25/March’26 settled at $3.70, while March/March’26 has continued to hold a tight range and is valued at $95.00.

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Dec’25 411.90 416.80 408.10 409.60 -3.30 409.80 12,627 26,399
Mar’26 405.80 411.60 404.00 405.90 -1.50 405.90 13,556 66,520
May’26 402.40 407.40 400.80 402.30 -1.10 402.20 3,429 25,124
Aug’26 399.40 403.70 397.60 398.80 -1.50 398.90 1,853 13,027
Oct’26 398.80 402.70 397.10 398.00 -1.70 398.20 844 5,121
Dec’26 402.10 402.10 401.10 401.30 -1.80 401.10 35 2,798
Mar’27 407.00 407.00 407.00 407.10 -1.80 407.00 38 2,500
May’27          –              –              –   412.70 -1.80 416.50 17 911
Aug’27          –              –              –   417.30 -1.70 421.80            –   659
Oct’27          –              –              –   420.20 -1.90 424.70            –   571
Dec’27          –              –              –   424.60 -1.80 429.40            –   329
Mar’28          –              –              –   430.40 -1.70 434.70            –   192
May’28          –              –              –   434.40 -1.70            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   437.10 -1.70            –                –  
Total             32,399 144,297

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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