Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 8th August 2025

Raw Sugar Update

The market was holding a narrow band when we resumed this morning, with Oct’25 sat between 15.54 and 15.61 throughout the first hour. The technical picture remains very weak and so it was to be expected that the market was not climbing away from the lows with funds keen to maintain the pressure and maximise the potential of their short positions. These have continued to grow recently with the most recent COT report showing an additional 17,260 lots sold during the reporting period to stand the position at -149,759 lots, with more having been added over the subsequent three sessions during which prices fell by a further 60 points. The range widened by a couple of points as morning trading remained flat, however we had to wait for the afternoon and traders in the Americas to arrive before interest picked up and additional movement developed. A small, short-covering move oddly proved a precursor to the most aggressive pressure as thousands more lots of selling were unleashed to send the price down through 15.44 and fill in more of the underlying pricing. Lows were made at 15.38, and though the pressure was maintained for a short time while the shorts attempted to utilise opportunity their efforts ended with a price reversal. This saw short covering bring values back to new daily highs, with prints at 15.70 registered ahead of the close. With the index roll underway there was a solid volume changing hands for Oct’25/March’26, trading either side of -0.60 points through the day but remaining little change overall. The day ended with nearby values maintaining modest gains, Oct’25 settling at 15.63 and March’26 at 16.26, both away from the lows but still facing technical and fundamental hurdles if a recovery is to be a possibility.  

White Sugar Update

Though there was some opening buying around to start the week trading higher, Dec’25 was soon back under pressure and through the first couple of hours these gains were erased with the price moving down through $455.00. There are fewer buyers to be found now outside of Oct’25, and while the spot continues to be well supported ahead of next weeks expiry there is pressure elsewhere which is seeing white premiums retreat alongside the flat price. As the morning saw outright values continue at the lower end of the early range March/March’26 softened towards $94.00, reflecting the sugar conditions moving forward in contrast to the squeeze being seen for Oct’25. Moving into the afternoon there were some larger price moves as a recovery stalled before day trader selling sent the price back down to a daily low at $454.00, just $0.20 above the Dec’25 low from early August. As small traders again moved to take cover the price then moved to the centre of the range and spent the final couple of hours near to $457.50 before ending the day at $457.90. Oct/Dec’25 ended the day at $21.80 as support remains firm from the trade, in turn keeping the Oct/Oct’25 white premium at $135.00.