Raw Sugar Update
There was an initial dip for March’26 as it dropped back to match last week’s low mark at 14.72, but having held that mark there followed a short covering bounce back to 14.86 to leave prices back in very familiar territory. The rest of the morning played out quietly in the vicinity of 14.80 and this provided the basis for a nudge up through the recent range to 14.93 during the early afternoon, although the resistance above 15.00 remained unchallenged as the buying petered out. With the missing COT data continuing to filter out in the public domain we see that during November the spec/fund short was growing towards expectation, though currently this is having no impact on the tight parameters with the larger funds evidently happy to maintain a sizable short at this time. Gradually through the afternoon we saw the flat price return to the low 14.80’s and be showing little change, with spreads also seeing minimal interest as illustrated by a flat board. There was no change to the scenario as we finally reached the close with March’26 ending the day at 14.82, a token gain with which to end a tedious day.
| Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs | ||||||||
| Month | Open | High | Low | Sett | Chg | Last | Vol | O/I |
| Mar’26 | 14.81 | 14.93 | 14.72 | 14.82 | 0.02 | 14.83 | 37,709 | 457,365 |
| May’26 | 14.38 | 14.52 | 14.32 | 14.44 | 0.06 | 14.44 | 16,046 | 197,083 |
| Jul’26 | 14.39 | 14.50 | 14.32 | 14.42 | 0.05 | 14.44 | 9,309 | 103,985 |
| Oct’26 | 14.70 | 14.81 | 14.63 | 14.73 | 0.04 | 14.75 | 3,682 | 75,493 |
| Mar’27 | 15.37 | 15.47 | 15.30 | 15.40 | 0.04 | 15.40 | 1,509 | 48,890 |
| May’27 | 15.21 | 15.28 | 15.14 | 15.24 | 0.04 | 15.24 | 451 | 20,540 |
| Jul’27 | 15.20 | 15.29 | 15.15 | 15.24 | 0.05 | 15.25 | 369 | 15,033 |
| Oct’27 | 15.43 | 15.53 | 15.38 | 15.47 | 0.04 | 15.48 | 210 | 14,656 |
| Mar’28 | 15.98 | 16.06 | 15.97 | 16.03 | 0.03 | 16.03 | 142 | 4,920 |
| May’28 | 15.83 | 15.83 | 15.80 | 15.86 | 0.02 | 15.80 | 38 | 2,494 |
| Jul’28 | 15.78 | 15.78 | 15.77 | 15.84 | 0.02 | 15.77 | 34 | 2,298 |
| Total | 69,499 | 942,757 | ||||||
Wite Sugar Update
Early losses were soon wiped out as March’26 moved back up to $426.40, however with most activity coming from the specs (once initial hedge lifting was concluded) the market settled down to trade calmly once more. For most of the morning March’26 drifted along in the mid $420’s, and though the price eased back to $423.00 as we moved through noon it made little difference to the general “sideways” dynamic. March/May’26 was seeing some moderate volume without moving by very much but the same could not be said for the white premium where recent gains were slowly eroding. As the flat price slipped back to more new lows through the afternoon and bottomed at $422.00, so the March/March’26 value eased towards $95.50, though given the moves in arbitrage value over recent times this was merely collateral damage against a market which cannot escape from a band. We saw the market touch back onto the lows ahead of the call though settlement was reached a small distance above this mark at $422.60. Overall, it was not the most convincing start to the week but leaves wider parameters unmoved for another day.
| White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities | ||||||||
| Month | Open | High | Low | Sett | Chg | Last | Vol | O/I |
| Mar’26 | 425.00 | 426.40 | 422.00 | 422.60 | -3.00 | 422.80 | 7,416 | 78,082 |
| May’26 | 422.10 | 423.60 | 418.70 | 420.00 | -2.70 | 420.10 | 4,180 | 30,559 |
| Aug’26 | 417.40 | 419.00 | 414.80 | 416.10 | -2.10 | 416.00 | 1,286 | 16,716 |
| Oct’26 | 416.60 | 418.20 | 414.80 | 415.60 | -1.60 | 415.50 | 377 | 6,695 |
| Dec’26 | 419.80 | 420.60 | 417.30 | 418.70 | -1.30 | 418.60 | 79 | 2,878 |
| Mar’27 | 423.60 | 424.00 | 422.20 | 423.40 | -0.90 | 423.50 | 29 | 2,837 |
| May’27 | – | – | – | 426.90 | -0.90 | 429.60 | – | 1,069 |
| Aug’27 | – | – | – | 430.30 | -0.90 | 433.10 | – | 797 |
| Oct’27 | – | – | – | 433.50 | -0.90 | 436.50 | – | 622 |
| Dec’27 | – | – | – | 438.20 | -0.80 | 441.30 | – | 404 |
| Mar’28 | – | – | – | 444.50 | -0.80 | 444.60 | – | 219 |
| May’28 | – | – | – | 448.80 | -0.80 | – | – | 146 |
| Aug’28 | – | – | – | 451.50 | -0.80 | – | – | – |
| Oct’28 | – | – | – | 453.90 | -0.80 | – | – | – |
| Total | 13,367 | 141,024 | ||||||
