Recent endeavours have taken their toll on many participants, and it was a far quieter environment that we found this morning with the first few hours seeing May’23 holding a narrow 19.64/19.79 band. As regularly seen a market with no direction will invariably begin to drift lower and that proved to be the case until a small spec push at the start of the US morning sent the price briefly spiking to match yesterdays 19.87 high. That merely clouded what was a very mediocre showing and before long the market had given back the gains to once more be drifting downwards, seeing lows at 19.48 midway through the afternoon and continuing only just ahead of this mark heading into the final hour. This period then proved to be by far the most interesting part of the day as buying returned, sending the market rocketing up to new session highs on volume of around 5,000 lots as the lack of resting sell orders allowed the market to be moved easily. It was not just the flat price which surged on the move with significant gains seen for the March/May’23 spread as it widened to 1.35 points, the urgency of trade buyers leading it upward and allowing the fund/index sellers to scale in. There was profit taking / position squaring on the close as some traders looked to take their risk of the board, though settlements remained positive with March’23 at 21.20 and May’23 at 19.87 providing hope for longs that they can further build on this late surge.
There was early buying in the market which launched May’23 ahead to quickly trade through yesterday’s highs and into the low $560’s. Within the first hour there was a second wave of admittedly light buying that extended the range to $562.10, however if the hope was that this would inspire some additional spec interest to the market then it was unfounded with the rest of the morning seeing a retreat down into the range. The market is feeling a touch lost now the dust has settled on recent moves, and though another effort was made to push higher during the early afternoon in reaction to No.11 moves this too proved to be half hearted leaving prices to retreat once more on day trader selling. All remained calm until the closing stages when from nowhere the market ignited to the upside. The volumes were still low but with only very limited resting selling the market worked into a vacuum, reaching $566.90 and settling only just beneath at $565.40. This leaves the picture well set to try and revisit the contract highs, though progress would then likely be tougher with more selling to be expected in the $570’s. March’23 open interest continues to reduce ahead of Monday’s expiry to now stand at 14,322 lots. As expected, the March/May’23 spread continues to trickle along with no sign of a squeeze, trading back to a very small discount at one stage before ending the day at $3.50 as result of the late rally.
