Raw Sugar Update 

It was a steadier start to trading as buyers initially took March’26 up to 16.74 as they looked to continue last night’s late recovery, however once the initial push ended prices settled back to sit near to overnight levels. A familiar situation then emerged through the later morning period with the market struggling to hold as buying diminished, and so across a couple of waves of selling we saw prices slump back down through the range to a low at 16.31 as participants in the Americas joined for the day. This placed values beneath yesterdays lows and underlined the fragile nature of the recovery effort since reaching 15.76 a couple of weeks back, and while prices stabilised in the wake of this fall there was no hint of any recovery as specs appeared burned by recent covering moves. The sideways grind continued through into the final hour, with shorts then placing some late pressure on the market by sending the price to a daily low at 16.26. There was no sign of any positio0n covering as we moved to a close at 16.29, the negative action raising fresh questions for the chart considering the latest rapid disintegration of gain.  

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 16.66 16.74 16.26 16.29 -0.34 16.32 49,143 464,858
May’26 16.14 16.25 15.81 15.83 -0.31 15.85 19,388 136,129
Jul’26 16.00 16.08 15.66 15.69 -0.30 15.72 9,402 89,455
Oct’26 16.21 16.29 15.86 15.90 -0.30 15.92 5,350 59,047
Mar’27 16.72 16.80 16.37 16.41 -0.31 16.44 3,385 31,303
May’27 16.41 16.44 16.04 16.08 -0.28 16.09 1,191 18,300
Jul’27 16.19 16.27 15.89 15.94 -0.24 15.94 804 14,370
Oct’27 16.30 16.38 16.01 16.07 -0.21 16.07 491 13,344
Mar’28 16.71 16.71 16.44 16.49 -0.20 16.44 134 4,259
May’28 16.17 16.17 16.15 16.18 -0.18 16.15 27 1,928
Jul’28 16.05 16.05 16.05 16.06 -0.17 16.05 17 1,356
                 
Total             89,332 834,349

White Sugar Update

Dec’25 began the day positively with an initial push up to $461.10, and through a mixed early period the gains were mostly sustained. By the middle of the morning things began to change with light selling proving sufficient to wipe out any gain and place the market into negative ground, and with little support to be found from consumers the price continued to slip. The rate of decline only eased during the early part of the afternoon but even here we did not find any volume to the buying and so through the afternoon Dec’25 made its way back to 2-week lows and illustrated the general bearish view of the market which prevails despite recent efforts to build a bottom. Pricing only picked up closer to $450.00 and last months $449.10 low, but with white premiums under pressure (March/March’26 in the $90 area) and the Dec’25/March’26 spread still at a small discount there was no prospect of a bounce. During the final hour, the price slipped to $450.10, and with a quiet close following we settled at $450.70 to renew the negative look and end a slow session by placing some questions over the chart.  

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Dec’25 458.80 461.10 450.10 450.70 -7.30 451.30 10,052 70,213
Mar’26 458.90 461.20 450.40 450.70 -7.90 451.30 6,344 37,692
May’26 459.00 461.10 450.40 450.50 -8.50 450.80 2,248 15,192
Aug’26 457.70 457.70 448.50 448.50 -8.30 449.30 422 7,016
Oct’26 451.10 451.10 447.50 447.60 -7.90 447.60 54 3,654
Dec’26 455.80 455.80 449.80 449.90 -7.50 449.90 50 2,458
Mar’27 460.60 460.60 454.80 454.90 -7.30 454.80 4 1,475
May’27 458.10 458.10 458.10 458.20 -7.10 458.10 2 540
Aug’27          –              –              –   460.10 -6.80 472.90            –   419
Oct’27 461.00 461.00 461.00 461.00 -6.50 461.00 1 457
Dec’27          –              –              –   463.40 -6.70 470.90            –   290
Mar’28          –              –              –   468.20 -6.70 477.20            –   192
May’28          –              –              –   472.20 -6.60 482.40            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   474.90 -6.60            –                –  
Total             19,177 139,744

     

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

More from this author