Raw Sugar Update 

There was another very slow start to trading as March’26 edged along quietly in the vicinity of 14.80 this morning, the current malaise meaning that there is less enthusiasm being shown to force movement. All remained calm until the afternoon when some spec selling arrived to pressure the lower side, taking encouragement from the trade/grower selling placed above to test the support in the lower 14.70’s. This was duly erased and the price slipped to 14.63 before pausing against short covering, though the failure of the market to recover beyond 14.76 suggested that some damage had been done. Indeed a drift back towards the lows drew out another wave of spec pressure and the price dropped through to 14.52, its lowest level since 14th November, before again finding some respite against day trader covering, The spreads were not massively impacted by this pressure with March/May’26 sitting at 0.37 points, though that may come under more pressure if the flat price retreat draws continued selling from funds looking to use the opportunity to renew pressure. Values remained off the lows into the close with a settlement reached at 14.67, though overall there is some daylight showing on the downside which may bring further weakness unless consumers bring more pricing orders.  

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.82 14.89 14.52 14.67 -0.15 14.66 72,395 454,182
May’26 14.44 14.49 14.15 14.30 -0.14 14.30 26,909 196,694
Jul’26 14.42 14.48 14.13 14.29 -0.13 14.28 19,369 105,300
Oct’26 14.74 14.79 14.45 14.61 -0.12 14.59 6,320 75,834
Mar’27 15.39 15.42 15.12 15.28 -0.12 15.26 4,136 49,224
May’27 15.23 15.27 14.98 15.13 -0.11 15.10 1,075 20,459
Jul’27 15.23 15.27 14.99 15.14 -0.10 15.14 780 14,985
Oct’27 15.42 15.48 15.24 15.38 -0.09 15.38 523 14,701
Mar’28 15.96 16.01 15.80 15.94 -0.09 15.94 465 4,938
May’28 15.71 15.80 15.65 15.77 -0.09 15.79 195 2,495
Jul’28 15.69 15.78 15.61 15.75 -0.09 15.77 275 2,283
                 
Total             132,442 941,095

White Sugar Update 

Values popped up to a small credit initially however there was a distinct lack of interest from buyers and so prices slipped back to show a small deficit and sit precariously on last weeks $420.60 low. This level just about held up through the morning; however, a sterner test was to come when selling volumes picked up with the arrival of US specs, and it did not take long for the market to crack lower. Initially the slide was picked up at $418.50 as the selling eased and the smaller traders searched for some cover, however with only the consumers to lean on for support the market had a vulnerable look which it was unable to shake. This in turn drew more spec/fund selling through the afternoon which triggered another fall, this time reaching as far as $415.50. The weakness rippled through to the spreads where March/May’26 saw lows at $2.40, while the premium also gave back a little more ground with March/March’26 valued beneath $95.00. There was some respite for the market through the last couple of hours and we held away from the lows to see March’26 close at $418.80, however this still left a rather poorly looking chart picture with little support to be seen now ahead of the $403.40 low should the funds wish to pile on more pressure.    

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 423.40 424.30 415.50 418.80 -3.80 418.30 6,896 77,671
May’26 421.10 421.10 412.90 415.70 -4.30 415.40 2,310 31,265
Aug’26 417.30 417.30 409.10 411.60 -4.50 411.90 1,143 16,943
Oct’26 416.00 416.50 408.70 411.30 -4.30 411.10 409 6,765
Dec’26 417.60 418.50 412.00 414.40 -4.30 414.20 110 2,881
Mar’27 424.40 424.40 417.00 419.10 -4.30 417.00 9 2,860
May’27 420.70 420.70 420.70 422.60 -4.30 420.70 2 1,069
Aug’27 425.20 425.20 425.20 426.00 -4.30 425.20 1 797
Oct’27 428.50 428.90 428.50 429.10 -4.40 428.90 2 622
Dec’27 433.30 433.30 433.30 433.80 -4.40 433.30 1 404
Mar’28 439.30 440.20 439.30 440.20 -4.30 440.20 2 219
May’28          –              –              –   444.50 -4.30            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   447.20 -4.30            –                 –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   449.60 -4.30            –                 –  
Total             10,885 141,642

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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