Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 9th February 2023

Having halted and reversed the decline over the past two sessions there was a fresh enthusiasm about the market this morning with buying for May’23 quickly sending the price up to 20.19. Progress then stalled and for a few hours the price edged along within the range, initially above 20c and then just beneath, though all the while feeling sufficiently supported that there would not be a collapse. With US traders online we then saw a more aggressive fund/spec push which extended the price up to 20.28 though with some slightly heavier selling appearing at the higher levels the move topped out well short of the 20.52 contract high mark. March’23 had been faring even better than May’23 on the higher moves with the pace of the roll again being dictated by the trade buyers as they extended March/May’23 out to 1.48 points, playing into the hands of the funds/specs who continue to move their longs forward on a scale up basis. Skipping all the way back to 19.80 it seemed as though the market may have topped out, but we know that fund longs will never give the game up easily and so it was that we were nudging 20c once more as the final hour arrived. The closing stages played out in this area to leave May’23 settling at 20.01, providing another positive close which maintains the recovery as we head into Friday.

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Yesterday’s stronger showing provided encouragement to longs and they reacted with continuing buying when the market resumed this morning, quickly pushing May’23 up through $570 to be with a few dollars of the contract highs. The gains were consolidated for a while however by late morning the lack of significant follow-on interest meant that position liquidation sent prices back down into the red. This was by no means the end as the afternoon brough some additional spec led buying into the environment to send values back up through the range. A second wave followed and led to new daily highs at $574.00, though unable to reach the contract highs just $1.40 above the price retreated again as more profit taking kicked in. Slipping back down through the range a second time it seemed that the efforts may have been in vain, however the market stabilised during the later stages to end the day at $568.40 and remain well situated to continue challenging higher. There was a more significant OI reduction against March’23 today, bringing the position down to 10.752 lots. March/May’23 had another reasonable range, mostly due to the morning rally that had it as wide as $8.40 before easing back to sit between $2.00 and $3.00 through the afternoon. Late buying left the spread settling at $3.90.

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