Raw Sugar Update

The new week got underway with Jul’25 trading unchanged at 16.49, however some light buying emerged and this allowed for a small recovery into the low 16.60’s soon afterwards. The market then levelled off and a low volume morning played out for the flat price with only the Jul/Oct’25 spread seeing meaningful interest against the continuing roll. There was a small nudge up to 16.70 during the early afternoon that failed to gather momentum, and the specs then kicked back into gear to sell the market down to fresh daily lows at 16.42 looking to benefit their exposures. The move ended abruptly with position covering then aiding the market to recover into the 16.50’s, and rather than stagnate the market somewhat surprisingly looked to the upside another time. Led by the whites we saw Jul’25 pull up to 16.75 before running out of steam as profits were taken, however prices moved back above 16.70 ahead of the close to ensure that we would see the day end positively. No further daily highs were recorded while a mixed call saw some defensive selling and limited the gain by a few points with Jul’25 settling at 16.67. Jul/Oct’25 saw another sizable roll volume which totaled over 65,000 lots and ended the day marginally up at -0.34 points. 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Jul’25 16.49 16.75 16.42 16.67 0.18 16.70 102,087 289,627
Oct’25 16.85 17.08 16.80 17.01 0.15 17.03 89,034 270,545
Mar’26 17.39 17.57 17.32 17.52 0.13 17.53 26,171 150,129
May’26 16.97 17.12 16.89 17.07 0.10 17.09 8,311 64,537
Jul’26 16.80 16.95 16.73 16.89 0.07 16.90 7,639 50,498
Oct’26 16.93 17.07 16.88 17.02 0.05 17.03 1,290 33,363
Mar’27 17.39 17.45 17.28 17.40 0.04 17.37 561 18,328
May’27 17.08 17.11 17.03 17.07 0.03 17.05 243 8,509
Jul’27 16.97 17.00 16.92 16.96 0.03 17.00 182 9,967
Oct’27 17.10 17.12 17.10 17.09 0.03 17.12 53 6,264
Mar’28 17.45 17.47 17.45 17.44 0.03 17.47 8 867
                 
Total             235,579 902,634

White Sugar Update

A mildly higher opening provided the backdrop for the market to try and stabilize and throughout a generally forgettable morning Aug’25 proceeded to consolidate in the upper $460’s. There was some widening of this trading band as we moved through the early afternoon as the market looked both higher and lower without any success, and it was not until the last couple of hours that the picture became more interesting. With limited selling overhead Aug’25 was able to gather a little more momentum and extend its gain up to $473.90, and in the process, there was much needed benefit added to the nearby spread and white premium values. Aug/Jul’25 was particularly firm as the value which has recently been rocking either ide of $100 pushed back to $105.00, and with Aug/Oct’25 back above $4.50 things were feeling slightly more positive for a change. Prices see-sawed a little during the final hour as some profit taking appeared ahead of closing buying, all of which resulted in an Aug’25 settlement level at $472.40 ahead of new daily highs at $474.30 on the post close. Aug/Jul’25 was valued at $104.90 heading out, and while todays move doesn’t materially change the wider technical picture it will provide an element of encouragement to those looking for a reversal that this market retains some life. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 465.70 474.30 465.20 472.40 7.20 473.40 7,432 49,578
Oct’25 463.20 470.20 462.20 468.60 6.30 469.20 4,686 28,285
Dec’25 465.00 470.20 463.50 469.00 5.10 469.60 1,642 11,639
Mar’26 471.00 474.70 469.00 473.80 4.30 474.70 510 9,857
May’26 472.60 475.20 470.90 474.60 3.70 475.20 140 4,595
Aug’26 473.20 475.10 471.50 474.40 3.10 474.80 124 2,632
Oct’26 472.50 475.10 472.10 474.80 2.70 474.70 32 1,369
Dec’26 475.50 477.70 475.50 477.50 1.60 477.00 33 1,075
Mar’27          –              –              –   481.90 1.00 480.50            –   470
May’27          –              –              –   484.30 1.00 483.00            –   220
Aug’27          –              –              –   484.70 1.00 483.30            –   41
Oct’27          –              –              –   485.00 1.00 484.30            –   76
Dec’27          –              –              –   483.80 1.00            –                –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   483.10 1.00            –                –  
Total             14,599 109,837

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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