Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 9th March 2025

Raw Sugar Update 

A gap opening saw May’26 starting the week above 14.25 and buying continued to flow in through the early stages to extend gains on to 14.48. The catalyst was clearly provided by the energy sector and more specifically crude values above $100 per barrel, and while our own gains lagged significantly behind in percentage terms the intent from traders was clear. Despite a pullback to 14.27 there was no move made to fill the chart gap, and process remained positive within the early range through the rest of the morning as steady buying maintained. Fridays COT report showed a mild reduction of the fund/spec short holding to -241,377 lots, and the levels of buying which returned to bring values back upwards as we passed through noon will have been bringing some further reduction to this figure with some traders taking cover in the uncertain world in which we find ourselves. They were finding some decent resistance along the way from producers who were keen to take advantage of the highest May’26 levels since January to lock in some hedging and reduce some of the “underpriced” burden that they have been carrying, however the push continued with highs subsequently recorded at 14.64. Despite crude values having fallen back from their highs there was a continuing drive to maintain the market strength through towards the end of the day and May’26 was duly pushed to a settlement just 5 points short of the highs at 14.59. Spreads were flat on the day despite seeing some solid volumes, and we move ahead with expectation of more macro influence to drive the narrative for the near term. 

White Sugar Update 

A higher call was being made this morning and the market duly obliged with May’26 immediately trading up above $420.00 and establishing a chart gap back to Fridays $416.80 high mark. The price continued to accelerate ahead to $426.40 across the early part of the session, though this place it well ahead of the No.11 and valued the May/May’26 premium above $107.00, and so buyers started to impose limits on their buying which enabled the market to pause. By the middle of the morning, we had seen the market fall back through opening levels as smaller traders closed longs out again, and a period was then spent consolidating wither side of $420.00 awaiting some fresh impetus. This period continued despite some efforts to drive the No.11 market ahead and in so doing reversed the trajectory of white premium movement with May/May’26 knocked back towards $100.00. While other markets looked to forge ahead there was no such enthusiasm for May’26, with pressure now coming onto the spreads causing it to lag the rest of the board. The pressure was such that May/Aug’26 slumped to afternoon lows at -$7.00 and maintained May’26 in the vicinity of $420.00 despite all other positions through to Aug’27 maintaining gains of over $10. This situation further exaggerated during the later part of the day with May’26 remaining static as the rest of the board posted additional gains. Settlement was reached for May’26 at $420.50 and Aug’26 at $427.70, valuing May/Aug’26 at -$7.20 though late afternoon lows had been made at -$8.70. White premiums presented a mixed bag with May/May’26 valued down at $98.80 while Aug/Jul’26 remained solid at $104.00.