Having lost some ground yesterday the market is raising some questions as to whether a challenge of contract highs is possible currently, though recent experience has shown that we shouldn’t discount any possibilities. Early trading today showed no sign that any significant movement would take place with an early dip to 25.93 being picked up by some defensive buying combined with light consumer interest to return values back to the 26.20’s where quiet consolidation ensued. The arrival of the Americas day drew a touch more buying to the environment and extended the days range up to 26.43, however it was purely driven by day trader activity and so at the first sign of weakness they chased back out and sent values tumbling back towards 26c. Funds remain aside from the market with the small reduction on the COT last Friday showing how the majority of the sector are remaining passive, and so it was left to the day traders and algo’s to drive any additional movements today. Prices did drive back towards the highs before settling at 26.19 against end of day position squaring, bring the curtain down on a mundane day which suggests that consolidation may indeed be the way forward in the short term.
With No.11 having recorded moderate losses while the whites were enjoying an extended weekend, there was an expectation that we would commence lower, and this duly occurred with Aug’23 starting lower and slipping all the way to $703.50 within the first hour. This soon picked back up with a recovery to $714.70 almost filling the intra-day chart gap, however the recovery then stalled as a lack of buying left values to consolidate quietly. There was a slight narrowing of the white premiums taking place, which was hindering any efforts to further rally, and despite a small push to $715.70 the market struggled to escape the sideways band throughout. Most of the afternoon was spent holding the upper end of the band with dips picked up reasonably well, though some end of day position squaring sent values back to conclude a quiet day showing small losses, Aug’23 settling at $709.10 while the Aug/Jul’23 white premium ended the session valued at $131.70.
