Raw Sugar Update 

A mixture of opening activity saw March’26 move between 16.40 and 16.25 initially before settling down to sit either side of overnight levels. Yesterday’s pullback has clearly impacted confidence and following a period trading sideways some spec selling arrived and pushed the price down to 16.17, though once completed we retuned to sit in the 16.20’s. Volumes were paltry, befitting a market of such lo interest away from the ends of the current band, and so prices continued to move along against small trader interest but could find little other participation. During the afternoon there was additional light pressure applied by specs to send values back to the morning lows, and on this occasion the price remained weak with marginal new lows registered at 16.16 later in the afternoon. Interest only picked up during the last half an hour as short covering too place to close back out positions, with the action bringing March’26 back into the $16.20’s. The close was made at 16.26, reducing the net loss to just 0.03 points to leave market parameters unchanged.   

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 16.33 16.40 16.16 16.26 -0.03 16.25 38,709 461,583
May’26 15.88 15.91 15.69 15.78 -0.05 15.79 14,077 137,811
Jul’26 15.74 15.76 15.54 15.64 -0.05 15.64 9,248 91,427
Oct’26 15.93 15.96 15.74 15.83 -0.07 15.84 6,320 59,875
Mar’27 16.44 16.46 16.25 16.34 -0.07 16.33 3,276 32,351
May’27 16.11 16.12 15.92 16.01 -0.07 16.00 578 18,260
Jul’27 15.96 15.96 15.80 15.87 -0.07 15.85 316 14,420
Oct’27 16.08 16.08 15.92 16.00 -0.07 15.94 157 13,078
Mar’28 16.41 16.43 16.40 16.42 -0.07 16.43 46 4,282
May’28          –              –              –   16.11 -0.07 16.15            –   1,941
Jul’28          –              –              –   15.99 -0.07 16.05            –   1,373
                 
Total             72,727 836,401

White Sugar Update 

The whites have looked vulnerable over recent days against weakening spread and white premium values, and despite opening prints up at $453.40 we were soon under the cosh as pressure was applied to the $450.00 area. The market held for a while, but by late morning the pressure told and having broken through $450.00 there was a drop to $448.00 against around 1,400 lots. Consumers were becoming more active again and this provided some support to the market, though with Dec’25 at its lowest level since early July we continued to creak on spec pressure and made early afternoon lows at $447.10. Short covering followed and brought values briefly back to the $450 area, but once completed we settled back down into a band based in the upper $440.’s. This remained the case through until the final 30 minutes when some pre-close shenanigans saw Dec’25 move back above $450 to settle at $451.00. Dec’25/March’26 worked its way back to a $0.80 premium to arrest its recent slide, while March/March’26 had stabilised and was valued at $91.80 going out.   

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Dec’25 453.30 453.40 447.10 451.10 0.40 451.30 10,561 69,819
Mar’26 454.00 454.00 447.40 450.30 -0.40 450.30 4,908 39,174
May’26 453.90 453.90 447.20 450.10 -0.40 450.20 1,614 15,692
Aug’26 451.40 451.40 445.40 448.20 -0.30 448.10 648 7,062
Oct’26 450.50 450.50 445.00 447.50 -0.10 445.90 190 3,643
Dec’26 454.80 454.80 448.20 450.10 0.20 450.00 222 2,475
Mar’27 454.80 455.00 454.10 455.70 0.80 454.10 100 1,472
May’27 458.10 458.10 458.00 459.40 1.20 458.00 6 541
Aug’27 460.00 460.00 460.00 461.50 1.40 460.00 1 419
Oct’27 461.00 461.00 461.00 462.50 1.50 461.00 3 457
Dec’27          –              –              –   464.70 1.30 470.90 1 290
Mar’28          –              –              –   469.70 1.50 477.20            –   192
May’28          –              –              –   473.70 1.50 482.40            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   476.40 1.50            –                –  
Total             18,254 141,382

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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