Insight Focus
The No.11 raw sugar futures have returned to trading below 15c/lb. Specs have added to the past week. The near-term outlook for Brent crude points to sustained elevated price levels.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
The No.11 raw sugar futures started the week at highs of 15.4c/lb but eventually retreated to trade in the 14.5-15c/lb range by Wednesday.
Producers took advantage of the higher price momentum, adding to their short position by 44.6k lots of shorts. Conversely, end-users have reduced their position by 32.8k lots of longs.
No.11 Commitment of Traders Report (May 5, 2026)
Speculators have closed out their shorts by 33.9k lots of shorts and opened 7.3k lots of longs.
The net-speculative position now stands at -87,289 lots.
No.11 & No.5 Open interest
The No.11 forward futures curve and the No.5 forward futures curve have both weakened across the board.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The Q/N white premium hit a high of USD 113.4/tonne and eventually settled at USD 108.1/tonne on Friday.
Brent Crude
Brent crude traded around USD 103.98/barrel in early afternoon BST, up 2.4% on the day, after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, prolonging the standoff and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, now in its 11th week.
Prices initially surged, with Brent briefly reaching near USD 106 before easing, while WTI hovered close to USD 98. The disruption has removed close to 1 billion barrels from the market over the past 10 weeks, around 14 million barrels per day, yet prices remain below 2022 highs, reflecting the market’s initial buffer and ongoing expectations that the strait will eventually reopen.
Limited vessel activity continues under Iran approved routes, with some tankers reportedly operating discreetly to avoid detection. Meanwhile, Saudi crude exports to China are expected to fall to 13–14 million barrels for June loading, down sharply from 20 million in May and significantly below pre-conflict levels of 40–50 million barrels.
With the US and Iran still far apart on a resolution, particularly around sanctions relief and control of Hormuz traffic, the near-term outlook points to sustained elevated prices, though the market’s capacity to absorb further supply shocks is increasingly constrained as inventories are drawn down.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
