Insight Focus
The No.11 raw sugar futures expired at 14.3c/lb last Friday. Commercial participants have closed out their positions heavily, while the net-short position remains at an all time high. Coffee prices remain under pressure amidst improving supply expectations.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
The No.11 raw sugar futures March’26 contract expired last Friday at 14.3c/lb.
On the commercial side, producers and end-users alike have closed out a large number of lots at 36.5k lots of shorts and 40.4k lots of longs respectively.
No.11 Commitment of Traders Report (February 24, 2026)
Speculators have opened 3.7k lots of longs and have reduced their short position by 4.3k lots of longs.
The speculative net-short position remains at an all-time high at -257,863 lots.
No.11 & No.5 Open interest
Both the No.11 and No.5 forward futures curve have flattened across all contracts.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The K/K white premium started the week at USD 99.6/tonne and settled at USD 101.5/tonne on Friday.
Coffee (Arabica)
Coffee prices remain under pressure as improving supply expectations, particularly from Brazil, continue to weigh on sentiment. Arabica futures recently fell to their lowest level in more than six months as seen from the graph below, with sharp declines in mid-February as certified stocks rebuilt and near-term supply concerns eased.
The most active contract has continued to soften, reflecting growing market confidence in a sizeable upcoming Brazilian harvest.
Positioning data shows sentiment has turned notably more cautious. Hedge funds have reduced their net long exposure in arabica to the lowest level in more than two years. This shift suggests speculative flows are increasingly aligned with the softer price environment.
Robust exports, alongside expectations of a larger Brazilian crop, are contributing to the broader theme of improving global availability. That said, weather volatility in key growing regions, along with ongoing geopolitical and cost pressures across the supply chain, remain potential upside risks should production or logistics conditions deteriorate.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
