Insight Focus
The No.11 raw sugar futures have rallied post-expiry. Speculators added 36.1k lots of long positions. LME aluminium is trading back around USD 3,100/tonne after falling sharply through June and touching a four-month low near the start of July.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
In the week after expiry, the No.11 raw sugar futures have rallied, currently trading above 15c/lb.
On the commercial side, producers took advantage of the price strength, extending their short position by 23.2k lots. End-users on the other hand, closed out 28.8k lots of long positions.
No.11 Commitment of Traders Report (June 30, 2026)
Speculators added to their long positions by a large number at 36.1k lots of longs and closed out just under 20k lots of shorts.
The current speculative net short position stands at -92,490 lots.
No.11 & No.5 Open interest
The No.11 forward futures curve has strengthened slightly towards the front of the curve whilst the No.5 forward futures curve has strengthened across all contracts.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The V/V white premium started the week at USD 140.6/tonne and climbed throughout the week eventually settling at USD 148.8/tonne on Friday.
LME Aluminium
LME aluminium is trading back around USD 3,100/tonne after falling sharply through June and touching a four-month low near the start of July.
The sell off was driven largely by improving supply expectations as Emirates Global Aluminium continues the restart of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi, alongside a more bearish market outlook from Goldman Sachs. Prices have since found some support from renewed Chinese buying interest, lower visible LME inventories, and a more supportive macro backdrop as expectations for further monetary tightening have eased.
However, the broader tone remains more cautious than earlier in the year, with Middle Eastern supply gradually returning, Goldman now projecting a much smaller aluminium deficit in 2026 and a surplus in 2027, while additional capacity growth is also expected from regions such as Indonesia. Overall, aluminium appears to be stabilising after the recent decline, but the market narrative has shifted away from acute supply concerns and towards a more balanced medium term supply outlook.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
