Insight Focus
India’s urea tender closing July 7 will guide prices. Processed phosphate prices keep rising on tight supply. Standard potash prices in Southeast Asia have climbed on an Indonesian tender, while affordability worsens in Brazil. Ammonia prices east and west of the Suez have stabilized, with European gas prices easing to match production costs.
Urea Prices Strain Buyers
The urea market appears to be caught between a rock and a hard place. Both Iran and Egypt are back online and producing. Iran has offered several cargoes with a base price of USD 420/tonne FOB, but there has been no traction among traders, with bids below USD 400/tonne. It appears that the volume offered is coming entirely from inventory. A small amount of Egyptian granular urea has been sold at a high of USD 460/tonne FOB for July shipment to Europe.
India’s 2 million tonne tender closes on July 7 for shipment on or before August 22. Price discovery will be particularly interesting, given that current urea prices appear high compared to grain values, raising affordability concerns. The question is whether India’s tender prices will signal globally that current prices are too high. The same can be argued in Brazil, with affordability across all fertilizers becoming urgent.
China may influence the market if the government releases another 2 million tonnes for shipment through September 1, bringing the total to 4 million tonnes. This could prompt a small correction in urea prices. It is understood that around 1.7 million tonnes of the first 2 million tonne tranche has already been executed for export.
In Vietnam, a 5% Value Added Tax (VAT) will be applied to fertilizers starting July 1, 2025, according to the 2024 VAT Law. This means imported fertilizers, previously exempt, will now be subject to this tax. The new law also broadens the definition of taxable entities to include foreign organizations and individuals providing services in Vietnam without a permanent establishment. As a result, CaMau, the Petrovietnam granular urea producer, raised the price to VND 13,200/1kg bag on July 2—equivalent to about USD 495–500/tonne FOB.
In the Middle East, producers have been reluctant to engage in discussions ahead of next week’s RCF tender for shipments to India by August 22. Several have suggested price targets of USD 450/tonne FOB but acknowledge current bid interest is lower, particularly from Western markets, which have also received offers from China in recent weeks. At the height of the Israel-Iran conflict, spot business for July and August had taken place in the USD 478–525/tonne FOB range.
Elsewhere, an offtaker is in the freight market for a vessel to carry 45,000 tonnes of granular urea from Mesaieed, Qatar, to ports in Brazil and Mexico for loading in mid-to-late July.
Pupuk Indonesia’s tender results from two weeks ago at USD 452.11/tonne FOB showed improvement late this week, with one large parcel reportedly sold at USD 462/tonne FOB.
The Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) has returned to the market for 212,000 tonnes of granular urea, with the tender closing July 7. This move is believed to be partially motivated by expectations that some awards from the June 16 tender will not be fulfilled. As before, the previous tender saw EABC issue awards for four cargoes from China for July–August shipment.
In the Philippines, the season is in full swing, but farmers are reducing fertiliser purchases due to very low rice farm gate prices of PHP 9,000–11,000/tonne (USD 159-194/tonne). One 50 kg bag of granular/prilled urea sells wholesale at USD 26.5–28.5/tonne from importers to first-level distribution. Importers are now reluctant to engage, given the very high prices being offered.
The Philippines’ urea imports for January–May totalled 319,000 tonnes, up from 264,000 tonnes during the same period in 2024. Of this, 106,000 tonnes came from Indonesia, 64,000 tonnes from Qatar and 46,000 tonnes from Brunei. May was the busiest month so far this year, with 87,000 tonnes imported: 42,000 tonnes from Qatar, 19,000 tonnes from Indonesia and 12,000 tonnes from Vietnam.
The outlook for urea prices will hinge on price direction from India’s tender closing on July 7.
China DAP Exports Slow as Prices Rise
MAP offers to Argentina have exceeded USD 800/tonne CFR, although no fresh sales have yet been confirmed at these levels. The latest MAP deals to Argentina were reported at USD 785/tonne CFR last week.
One month ago, OCP reported the sale of 30,000 tonnes of MAP to a trader for July loading to Latin America (excluding Brazil) at USD 760/tonne FOB Morocco. At the time, OCP indicated the sale reflected USD 790–795/tonne CFR equivalent, with Argentina understood to be the destination.
DAP liquidity in Argentina is limited, but participants generally peg prices USD 5–10/tonne lower than MAP. Last week, DAP prices in Argentina were assessed at USD 780/tonne CFR.
DAP prices in India have risen to USD 810/tonne CFR, up from USD 636/tonne CFR in mid-March. No relief appears in sight due to limited availability due to trickle down exports from China.
OCP of Morocco exported 4.9 million tonnes of phosphate fertilizers in the first five months of 2025, up 2.1% year-over-year, per Office Des Changes data. However, this increase lags ongoing capacity expansions. May exports totalled 1.06 million tonnes, roughly flat year-over-year.
This period typically reflects lower overall volumes from OCP due to weather constraints and Q1 maintenance at Jorf Lasfar. Most of OCP’s exports are expected in H2 2025. Total phosphate fertilizer exports are forecast to average 1.2 million tonnes/month in H2, with DAP/MAP exports averaging 775,000 tonnes/month.
With OCP’s capacity rising to around 16.0 million tonnes in 2025, exports are forecast at 13.1 million tonnes, and production at 13.8 million tonnes (86% of capacity). H1 2025 phosphate exports likely reached 6 million tonnes, up from 5.7 million in H1 2024.
Notably, DAP/MAP/TSP exports could rise by 1.5–1.6 million tonnes in 2025, partly due to the absence of 800,000 tonnes in NPS sales to Ethiopia. This reflects up to a 4-million-tonne increase in availability over three years. With China’s inconsistent export regime, OCP stands to benefit, making it difficult for Chinese phosphate producers to regain former glory.
Chinese DAP export prices are again trending higher this week, although sales remain limited. July-loading activity includes roughly 30,000 tonnes to Pakistan and 5–10,000 tonnes to Japan at USD 760/tonne FOB. Some sources report Southeast Asian and Latin American DAP prices at USD 750/tonne FOB.
Recent rumours suggest China sold 6–8,000 tonnes to the Philippines and about 10,000 tonnes to Indonesia for July loading at USD 750/tonne FOB. Some trader deals for July loading were reportedly at USD 755–760/tonnes FOB, though these are yet to be confirmed.
Current Chinese DAP offers are now generally being reported at USD 770–780/tonne for July–August, though no confirmed deals are indicated this high. Chinese DAP suppliers expect Bangladesh to announce a major DAP/TSP tender, targeting H2 sales from China.
China’s minimum export price for DAP was recently set at USD 680/tonne FOB, about USD 80 below current offers reported.
Latest DAP offers in Latin America are about USD 740–750/tonne FOB China. Indian DAP prices now net back to China at roughly USD 775/tonne FOB, but there is no allowance to make sales to the market.
Chinese DAP prices are assessed up USD 9/tonne at USD 750–760/tonne FOB pending further activity. The latest MAP 11-44 prices were last pegged at USD 580/tonne FOB, with offers at USD 585–590/tonne. Sales have been limited, with traders struggling to sell in Brazil above USD 600/tonne CFR and now seeking cargoes at no higher than USD 570/tonne FOB China. Minimum export prices were recently set at USD 570–580/tonne FOB China.
China’s full-year 2025 DAP/MAP exports could fall as much as 47% year-over-year to 3.5–3.6 million tonnes, down from 6.6 million in 2024.
The outlook for prices remains bullish, with further price increases expected due to ongoing supply constraints.
SE Asia Potash Prices Climb on Tight Supply
Standard-grade potash benchmarks in Southeast Asia rose again due to tight spot supply and stronger Pupuk Indonesia tender awards. Domestic Chinese prices also continued to climb.
Standard-grade MOP prices resumed their upward trend after a brief pause last week. Pupuk Indonesia’s 35,000 tender closed at USD 375/tonne CFR, signalling increased prompt pricing. The buyer is expected to return to the spot market to secure further supply in the near-term, sources said.
Standard product in the region is now assessed at USD 350–375/tonne CFR, up from USD 345–360/tonne CFR last week. Granular MOP remains at USD 370–385/tonne CFR.
The Asian markets received clearer direction in early June after India settled its quarterly contract at USD 349/tonne CFR, USD 64–66/tonne higher than the previous quarter. Chinese buyers subsequently awarded their 2025 supply contract at USD 346/tonne CFR. These contract prices have established a price floor and sent an upward signal for Southeast Asia.
Credit issues continue to affect the Brazilian market, with some sellers taking a cautious approach. Spot offers are around USD 365–370/tonne CFR, while bids are closer to USD 360–365/tonne CFR. Granular-grade potash was assessed in a broader range of USD 360–370/tonne CFR this week, slightly higher at the upper end compared to last week’s USD 360–366/tonne CFR.
Potash prices are expected to slide slightly due to affordability concerns but are still expected to peak in September. However, stronger-than-expected demand in H2 2025 poses an upside risk.
Iranian Ammonia Returns Ease Pressure in East
Sentiment remains strongly bullish in the West, driven by supply disruptions in North Africa that have significantly reduced export availability. In contrast, the East offers a brighter outlook for buyers as Iranian volumes return.
The loss of several cargoes from Algeria and Egypt due to unplanned shutdowns continues to drive up prices in Europe. While potential curtailments in Trinidad have not yet occurred, at least one US Gulf facility has gone offline. Traders are struggling to secure FOB cargoes for July, hence the large number of tankers awaiting instructions at key export hubs.
Assuming Algerian and Egyptian supplies resume soon, upward price pressure should ease, helping to deflate CFR prices. In the East, aside from scheduled maintenance in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, market conditions are stable, and recent volatility from the Iran conflict has notably diminished.
Prices do now appear to have found a floor on both sides of the Suez, though could remain largely stable through July as the market begins to find a footing. However, any confirmed natural-gas curtailments—and subsequent production cuts in Trinidad— could provide upside support going forward.
