Register here: Ethanol and the energy crisis June 30th
Insight Focus
Global conflict drives crude oil and gasoline prices higher. The US-Israel/Iran tensions have pushed crude above USD 100 per barrel, prompting calls to expand E15 ethanol use to help moderate fuel costs. Rising energy prices and supply disruptions are also straining US corn production, fertilizer markets and agricultural profitability heading into the 2026 season.
Armed conflicts in the Middle East always play havoc with oil prices and the resulting transportation fuel costs. The current US-Israel conflict with Iran has predictably sent crude oil prices soaring, topping USD 100/barrel as of March 8.
The cost of gasoline for consumers is also climbing dramatically around the world. In the US, the conflict in Iran could provide the impetus to push nationwide, year-round E15 over the hump of congressional resistance.
Ethanol as a Tool to Reduce Fuel Costs
Adding more lower-cost ethanol to the national gasoline blend would help moderate the rising cost of fuel. But the benefits would go far beyond that, reaching deep into the heart of US agriculture and the nation’s economy.
The RFA has urged the Trump administration to take immediate action to allow broader use of lower-cost, US-made ethanol in the fuel supply to help blunt the impacts of higher crude oil and gasoline prices.
Source: EIA
“Adding larger volumes of low-cost ethanol to gasoline is a proven solution for reducing fuel prices and helping to insulate the US market from global supply shocks,” wrote RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper in a letter to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, who chairs the administration’s National Energy Dominance Council. “A series of simple deregulatory actions could rapidly unleash billions of gallons of additional fuel volume, providing relief at the pump for hardworking American families.”
Ethanol is selling at a significant discount to gasoline, Cooper noted. On March 6, ethanol was selling for USD 0.84 per gallon less than gasoline at the wholesale level—a discount of 31%. In recent days, E15 has been selling for USD 0.27 per gallon less than standard E10 gasoline.
The ethanol industry argues that expanding access to E15 would help protect US consumers from the geopolitical volatility that often rattles global energy markets.
“It just speaks to the need for us to take every action we can to insulate ourselves from these kinds of geopolitically induced price spikes,” said Troy Bredenkamp of the RFA. “Allowing E15 to be sold year-round would strengthen US energy independence at a time when global supply chains are under pressure. If it were adopted nationally, it would remove or displace almost half of the volume that is coming from OPEC countries.”
Implications for US Agriculture
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) said that rising geopolitical risk and uncertainty are putting fertiliser markets and corn production economics on edge. Disruptions to key shipping routes and higher global energy costs threaten nitrogen and phosphate supplies at a critical point in the spring shipping and application window.
“For corn growers, this raises the risk of higher input costs and tighter margins, especially for those still exposed to spot fertiliser markets,” NCGA said. “While the full impact will depend on how long the conflict persists, fertiliser availability and price volatility are emerging as even more important variables shaping corn profitability heading into the 2026 growing season.”
