Insight Focus
The Mercosur-EU trade deal takes effect May 1. It is expected to boost bilateral agribusiness trade, especially in products such as beef, corn and poultry, with export quotas to be shared across Mercosur countries. Now, sectors of agribusiness are rushing to finalise negotiations.
The entry into force of the free trade deal between Mercosur and the EU, scheduled for May 1, is good news for Brazilian agribusiness. Although the treaty is still under review at the EU Court of Justice, at the request of countries such as France, its implementation is considered virtually certain by Mercosur countries.
The agreement stipulates export quotas for Mercosur member countries Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which may be shared among the bloc’s member countries. Beef, corn and chicken are included on this list.
Now, representatives of these sectors are rushing to finalise the quota allocation, which must be based on the volume of exports from each Mercosur country to the EU. “Brazilian authorities and their counterparts in Mercosur must reach a consensus and inform the EU,” says Felipe Spaniol, coordinator of commercial intelligence and advocacy at the National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA).
Felipe Spaniol. Photo courtesy of CNA
At a time of global geopolitical shifts, the agreement is seen as an opportunity to strengthen ties between the two blocs and boost bilateral trade. Brazilian exports to the EU are expected to increase by USD 1 billion this year alone, according to the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil).
In 2025, Brazil shipped approximately USD 49.8 billion in goods to the EU, about 3% more than in 2024, according to Comex.
Source: Comex
The projected growth in shipments this year is expected to be driven by products such as oil and coffee, which top the list of exports to the EU.
Source: Comex
Beef Exports Expected to Take Off
Agricultural and livestock products exported on a large scale to the EU—and already experiencing strong growth—are expected to post significant gains from the agreement. This is the case for beef, whose exports to the bloc totalled USD 907 million last year, approximately 86% higher than in 2015.
Source: Comex.
The export quota for beef to the EU, set at 99,000 tonnes per year at a tariff of 7.5% should boost shipments. The current rate varies between 12.8% and 20%
Brazil is expected to receive about 42% of the quota, following the dynamics of the volumes exported by each Mercosur country, although the proposal still depends on final approval.
Mercosur is the EU’s main meat supplier, with Brazil in the lead. In 2025, the EU purchased approximately 92,300 tonnes of meat from Brazil, 63,000 tonnes from Argentina, and 46,800 tonnes from Uruguay, according to the European Commission.
If Brazil is able to export 42,500 tonnes of meat per year to the EU under the free trade deal, revenue from these shipments could rise significantly in the coming years.
It is worth noting, however, that the maximum quota of 99,000 tonnes will only be reached in five years. In the first year of the agreement, Mercosur countries will be able to export approximately 9,000 tonnes of meat to the EU at a tariff of 7.5%, gradually reaching the maximum permitted limit in five years.
Poultry Shipments Will Also Benefit
For poultry exports, the annual quota for Mercosur was set at up to 180,000 tonnes per year, tariff-free. This volume, however, will only be reached over six years. Annual increases are planned, starting at 15,000 tonnes in the first year of the agreement.
Today, Brazil exports more than 100,000 tonnes of poultry per year to the EU. “The impact of the trade deal on the overall animal protein sector will be gradual,” the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA) said in a statement. But the gains should become clear in the coming years.
Source: Comex.
Brazilian poultry exports are concentrated in Middle Eastern countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which has raised concerns in the sector because of the war in the Gulf.
Source: Comex
In this sense, the trade deal with the EU represents a strategic opportunity to diversify exports and provide a more predictable trade flow.
Opportunities for Corn Exports
A similar view is shared by corn producers and exporters. Some of Brazil’s largest trading partners in grain exports are countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The logistical obstacles caused by the war in the Middle East have been affecting shipments to the region. In March of this year, there were practically no shipments to Iran or Saudi Arabia, according to Comex.
Source: Comex
Between January and March, revenue generated by poultry exports reached USD 1.32 billion, nearly 15% less than in the same period last year. The drop was limited only because some of the exports were redirected to countries such as Vietnam and Egypt.
At the same time, sales to the EU have been increasing, albeit unevenly, totalling USD 1.36 billion in 2025, or about 16% of the total. In volume terms, shipments reached 3.1 million tonnes, more than double the 2015 level.
Source: Comex.
Argentina’s corn exports to the EU, in turn, totalled around 103,700 tonnes last year, roughly in line with the average of the past 10 years, according to the European Commission. Paraguay and Uruguay tend to have an even more modest presence in this market.
As a result, most of the 1-million-tonne-per-year tariff-free quota established in the agreement with the EU should go to Brazil. In the first year of the agreement, the maximum limit will be 166,670 tonnes, gradually rising to 1 million tonnes in the fifth year of the agreement.
Exports to the EU are likely to become more stable over time, strengthening trade ties between the two blocs. “This is, incidentally, one of the main objectives of the treaty, which should provide a growing rapprochement between Mercosur and the EU,” says Spaniol.
