Insight Focus
China resumed US soybean purchases in November. Rising Brazilian prices narrowed the US price gap, but a 10% tariff keeps US soybeans uncompetitive for most Chinese buyers. Shrinking South American supplies may create a brief window for US exports to rebound in early 2026.
China Resumes US Soybean Purchases
By late November, China had resumed purchases of US soybeans for the first time since the US and China began trading tariffs six months earlier. USDA reported six major sales to China totalling more than 1.9 million tonnes between October 30 and November 28, 2025. Some market participants estimated that sales to China were even higher.
Following the October 30 meeting between Trump and Xi to ease trade tensions, China waived punitive tariffs on soybeans and restored trading rights to several US exporting firms. China’s state-owned COFCO trading company made several soybean purchases in advance of the meeting, and the company signed an agreement to purchase additional US soybeans. However, China retained a 10% tariff on all US goods, which made US soybeans more expensive than beans from other origins, and there were few signs that other Chinese buyers were making purchases.
Despite the resumption of sales, no physical shipments of US soybeans have yet reached China. As of November 20, the USDA reported that soybeans inspected for export totalled 10.9 million tonnes for the 2025/26 market year, with none bound for China. This was the lowest volume in years and 8.8 million tonnes less than during the same period a year earlier.
With the harvest completed in October and storage space limited, the lack of demand forced some US farmers to sell at low prices, while others stored their soybeans on the ground covered by tarpaulins. Seeing little progress toward China’s 12-million-tonne purchase commitment by the end of 2025, some US farmers voiced doubts that the target would be met and raised concerns with the Trump administration.
President Trump assured farmers that soybeans and other agricultural products had been discussed in his November 24 phone call with Xi Jinping. After the Trump–Xi phone call, news media reported that 10 or more additional cargoes of soybeans had been purchased by Chinese entities.
Brazilian Soybean Prices Narrow Gap With US
The price competitiveness of US soybeans improved fractionally during November. The early October price spread between US and Brazilian soybeans closed to near parity during November. Export prices published by the International Grains Council showed that FOB price quotes for soybeans from Brazil’s Paranagua port rose above the US Gulf price in late November for the first time in many months.
Estimated costs of soybeans arriving in China also showed the cost of soybeans from Brazil’s Paranagua rising above the cost of beans from US Pacific Northwest ports for the first time in late November.
Source: IGC
Source: feedtrade.com
The recent movement in Brazilian prices is the latest in a rising trend since Brazil’s soybean harvest in early 2025. The average value of Brazil’s exported soybeans reported by customs data edged upward from about USD 380/tonne to USD 430/tonne between April and October, a cumulative increase of 13% over six months. A rise in fob price quotes at the Paranagua port parallels the increase in export value. In November, Paranaguá prices rose above USD 440/tonne for the first time in 2025.
Source: Brazil CEPEA, China Customs
Chinese customs data revealed a parallel increase in the cost of imported Brazilian soybeans. Some Chinese resistance to higher Brazilian prices was indicated by angry accusations of Brazilian price-gouging that appeared on Chinese social media during October, but the cumulative increase was less than 8% over four months. Angry commentary reappeared in November, with one commentator describing the suspension of Brazilian exporters as “China’s turn to settle scores” with Brazil for “opportunistic profiteering.”
Tariffs Keep US Soybeans Uncompetitive
Despite these price movements, the difference between Brazilian and US soybean prices was still less than 1% by late November, not large enough to offset the extra 10% tariff on US soybeans. A Chinese oilseed market report estimated the after-tax import cost in Chinese currency at RMB 4,465/tonne for US soybeans and RMB 4,002 for Brazilian soybeans imported in January 2026.
With the extra tariff in place, private Chinese companies and multinationals that comprise the bulk of Chinese soybean crushers would need a larger price spread to induce large purchases of US soybeans. Moreover, the rise in US bean prices may have cooled demand from bargain-hunting non-China buyers who had bought US beans during September–October.
Weekly USDA export inspections for the 2025/26 market year fell below 800,000 tonnes during the week ending November 20, about half the nearly 1.6-million-tonne peak during the week ending October 16 when US beans were still at a discount to Brazilian beans.
Source: USDA, Weekly Exports Historical Data (USDA)
With US soybeans still at a price disadvantage, it is possible that state-owned Chinese companies were offered an unannounced tariff waiver or other inducement to make the November purchases. Several days after the Trump–Xi phone call, Chinese authorities suspended five Brazilian soybean exporters due to the discovery of pesticide-coated wheat seeds in a single cargo, a move that may have been intended as a signal that officials were addressing US concerns about the slow pace of US bean purchases.
Shrinking South American Supplies May Open Brief Window for US
Chinese market reports indicated continued strong crush of about 9 million tonnes per month but supplies of imported soybeans and soybean meal were said to be ample. Ship lineups indicated Brazilian shipments to China would be less than 4 million tonnes in November, and Argentine shipments would be 1.9 million tonnes. China will likely need to import US soybeans to supplement shrinking South American supplies through February 2026, but more movement in prices is needed to make those imports commercially viable with the 10% tariff on US beans in place.
Another record Brazilian soybean crop is expected to be harvested in early 2026, limiting room for further growth in Brazilian prices. The availability of large Brazilian supplies in the months after the new harvest will likely put downward pressure on prices in 2026, leaving a brief window for US exports to rebound in Q1 2026.
Source: Conab
There seems to be little room for decline in US prices either. After rallying to over USD 11/bushel in November, the Chicago futures price has fluctuated in a narrow range with little inclination to fall below that level.
