Analyst Insights

• Uncertainty surrounding exports from the world’s biggest sellers
• Fallout from bank collapses in Europe and the US
• Variable wheat crop reports and the latest WASDE numbers

• 600k tonnes sales reported for 4 consecutive days.
• Black Sea grains corridor extended.
• Worst Argentine corn crop in 22 years.

• No.11 raw sugar futures closed last week at 20.7c/Ib.
• K/K sugar white premiums stand at 128USD/mt.
• We continue to think that producers are well hedged.

• Sugar sales have rocketed this month in America.
• Some beet processors are approaching 75% sold for 2023/24.
• They are considering stopping sales earlier than usual to guard against any shortfalls in supply.

Featuring 8 key futures markets that combined add up to more than 50% of the entire weighting of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (23 markets total) and augmented by analysis of the Bloomberg Index and the US Dollar Index, this report offers the preeminent heavyweight commodity sector portfolio.

• Argentina looks set to grow 25m tonnes soybeans this year.
• That’s half the level forecast for this crop 11 months ago.
• The market will need Brazil’s huge soy crop to compensate.

• Fertilizer imports to the EU will soon include carbon dioxide emission costs.
• The cost of fertilizers for EU farmers (and therefore food prices) could rise.
• Particularly since the EU imports plenty of fertilizers from high CO2-emitting origins.

• Lower urea prices across the board bar NOLA/US.
• Processed phosphate prices are not finding a floor due to lack of demand.
• Ammonia netbacks in the middle east the lowest seen since March of 2019.

• Despite improved PTA fundamentals, futures hit by rout in crude markets.
• PET resin export prices hold flat, price sets to move lower if crude fails to rebound quickly.
• With ample availability, new capacity additions due April may constrain export prices.