Analyst Insights

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• This week, around 600kmt were added to CS raws line up.
• September could set a new record of exports.
• October nominations already close to 900kmt.

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 24th September 2020

• It looks like 20/21 could end sooner than expected, 3 mills have stopped this fortnight.
• This is due to the strong crushing pace result of the dry spell.
• It also takes a toll on cane harvested from now on as a drop in agricultural yield.

• With the No.11 futures around 12.5-13c/lb this week, raw sugar export parity is well within negative territory; 19.5c/lb is where we’ll see unsubsidised Indian raws exports for 2020/21 become competitive. 
• The No.5 futures have kept their range this week; USD 478/Mt is where we’ll see unsubsidised Indian low-quality white exports become competitive.
• The USD/INR FX is stable this week and does not influence the attractiveness of exports. 

• White sugar prices have bounced back in recent weeks and now sit at $372/mt.
• However, the whites market remains oversupplied as India looks to subsidise exports in 2021.
• If the Indian government takes any longer to award the subsidy, the market will tighten, benefitting prices.

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 23rd September 2020

• In the first report in this series, we concentrated on placing Sustainable Agriculture (SA) into the global ecosystem and demonstrated how it is a vital tool to prevent catastrophic events, such as excessive global warming, while playing an important role in feeding the world.
• In this report, we are going to focus on the main production unit, the farm, and place it in the context of that ecosystem.

• Thailand’s cane and cassava fields were hit by Storm Noul last weekend.
• The storm’s heavy rains caused flooding and general disruption in many Thai provinces, but the Central and Lower Northeast regions were the worst-affected.
• It looks as though this has had a positive impact on the cane, but a negative impact on cassava.

• We think Thailand will produce 28.3m tonnes of cassava in 2020/21; up 12% year-on-year. 
• This comes as many Thai farmers are now planting cassava instead of cane to earn more money.
• China’s increased demand for cassava chip also plays its part, as it looks for a cheaper form of animal feed.