Analyst Insights

• Pace of nomination have picked up this week in CS;
• Around 700kmt of raws were added to Q3 line up – registered nominations for July and August;
• June exports, affected by rains at the end of the month, totalled 2.2mmt.

Two weeks ago we said the common sense was returning to the molasses market and that certainly seems to be holding true.

The latest news is the export ban on cane molasses from the Indian State of Maharashtra has been lifted and exports can resume. What does this mean for availability and prices?

• The refined sugar market has fallen by approximately $40/mt in the past fortnight, after reaching four-month highs of $394/mt.
• The coronavirus continues to impact demand and the threat of second waves and reintroduced lockdowns are doing very little to support sugar consumption.
• Spec involvement is also the lowest we have seen in recent years, but they could push the market either way if there’s a shift in sentiment.

• El mercado del azúcar refinado ha caído aproximadamente $ 40 / t en las últimas dos semanas, luego de alcanzar máximos de cuatro meses de $ 394 / t.
• El coronavirus continúa impactando la demanda y la amenaza de segundas oleadas y bloqueos reintroducidos están haciendo muy poco para apoyar el consumo de azúcar.
• La participación de especuladores también es la más baja que hemos visto en los últimos años, pero podrían impulsar el mercado de cualquier manera si hay un cambio en el sentimiento.

• O mercado de açúcar refinado caiu aproximadamente US$ 40/mt na quinzena passada, depois de atingir maior alta em quatro meses de US$ 394/mt.
• O coronavírus continua a impactar a demanda, a ameaça de uma segunda onda da doença e os lockdowns sendo reintroduzidos estão contribuindo muito pouco para dar suporte ao consumo de açúcar.
• O envolvimento dos especuladores também é o mais baixo que temos visto nos últimos anos, mas eles podem afetar o mercado de qualquer direção se houver uma mudança de sentimento.

• 在达到394美元/吨的4个月峰值后，精制糖市场在过去两周下跌了大约40美元/吨。
• 疫情对需求的持续影响加上第二波疫情的威胁和重新实施的封锁措施，这都不利于食糖消费。
• 投机者的参与度也是我们近些年来看到最低的，但是如果市场情绪发生转变，他们可能会引发市场迅速波动。

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 1st July 2020

Czapp Explains: The Exchange, Futures and Physical Contracts

• Thailand exported 259k tonnes of white sugar in May, up 17k tonnes month-on-month (MoM).
• Vietnam was the largest importer (102kmt), as it prepares for a 200k tonne decrease in sugar production year-on-year (YoY).
• Thailand has exported 1.36m tonnes of white sugar between January and May 2020; this is 200k tonnes more than they did in the same period last year.

• Shipping operations have been largely affected by COVID-19.
• The movement of ship crews, truck drivers and others needing access to port facilities have all been largely disrupted.
• However, many global export restrictions now seem to be stabilizing.

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 30th June 2020

CS Brazil – Sugar or Ethanol? 30th June 2020