Insight Focus
2025 US corn crop projected to reach record 17 billion bushels. Removing E15 barriers could drive demand for over 2 billion bushels and save consumers 10–30 cents per gallon. Strong crop quality and favourable conditions support the EIA’s forecast for ethanol production growth in 2027.
USDA Predicts Record US Corn Crop
The USDA’s most recent supply and demand report indicated that the 2025 US corn crop of more than 17 billion bushels (431,822 tonnes) is a new production record. With corn prices falling to their lowest level in six years and corn stocks at their highest level in eight years, calls for nationwide, year-round availability of E15 are intensifying, as the need for additional corn demand has become a necessity.
Source: USDA
Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) CEO Geoff Cooper said the bearish market forces are a “sobering wake-up call about the state of the farm economy.” He said eliminating the E15 barrier, along with outdated fuel retail infrastructure regulations, is the fastest way to get the market on the right track. Cooper said ethanol expansion through E15 sales could create new demand for more than 2 billion bushels of corn and sorghum and save consumers an estimated 10 to 30 cents per gallon at the gasoline pump.
According to the US Grains & BioProducts Council’s (USGBC’s) 2025/2026 Corn Harvest Quality Report, the 2025 crop is also distinguished by the lowest rate of broken corn and foreign material (BCFM) in the report’s history. The council called the quality data a remarkable accomplishment for the entire US corn value chain.
Source: US Grains & BioProducts Council
USGBC said favourable growing season conditions contributed to the highest projected average yield on record, at 11.67 tonnes/ha (186 bushels/acre). The 2025 growing season was marked by warm, dry conditions after planting, wetter conditions during pollination, and progressively cooler and drier weather during early grain-fill.
Garrett Toay of AgTraderTalk said the increase in harvested acres was found in the Western Corn Belt. “If you look at where the majority of the acres came from, it was the Dakotas and Minnesota. The total principal crop between North Dakota and South Dakota had 6.1 million acres.” Another analyst based in North Dakota said more corn was likely combined rather than chopped for silage this year.
Ethanol Forecast to Expand in 2027
Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects ethanol production volumes to expand in 2027, according to the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The agency, however, revised down its forecast for 2026 production. The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.07 million barrels per day in 2026, down from the December forecast of 1.08 million barrels per day.
The January STEO contains the EIA’s first short-term outlook for 2027, with the agency predicting that fuel ethanol production will expand to 1.08 million gallons per year in 2027. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.07 million barrels per day in 2025. On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.06 million barrels per day during the first and second quarters of 2026, expanding to 1.07 million barrels per day during the third quarter and 1.11 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter.
Source: EIA
