Insight Focus
Our projected 2026/27 global sugar production surplus has shrunk to 1.1 million tonnes. The risk of El Niño this year poses clear downside risk to cane production in India, Thailand and Brazil, and could tip the sugar market into deficit.
2026/27 at a Glance…
All figures in m tonnes tel quel
2026/27 El Niño Risk
As the 2025/26 sugar production season winds down, we turn our attention to the 2026/27 harvest. This will begin imminently when cane mills in Centre-South (CS) Brazil, the world’s largest cane region, start to crush.
At this early stage we expect 2026/27 to be in surplus by around 1.1m tonnes. However, we have not reduced any of our crop forecasts at this stage to account for the forecast El Nino event in 2026.
A classic El Niño brings hotter, drier conditions to India and Thailand, which could affect cane development. In CS Brazil, it tends to bring the opposite: excess rainfall that can disrupt crushing progress. But El Niño events can be unpredictable and do not always deliver textbook outcomes, so much so that the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration once compared it to a ‘bad bartender’: it doesn’t always deliver what you ordered.
This means our current production forecasts for Thailand, India and CS Brazil carry downside risk.
Even a moderate El Niño-driven production shortfall could be enough to tip 2026/27 into sugar deficit territory, meaning global sugar stocks could start to draw down.
Global Sugar Production
Turning back to 2025/26, sugar production is likely to end up being the second highest on record.
We have increased our production estimate for Thailand – up from 11.5 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes, due to the strong tail to cane crushing.
Offsetting this is India, where the 2025/26 crush is now almost complete and with only 19 mills still in operation mid-April, we think final production will now be just under 28 million tonnes. This year’s disappointing crop is largely due to farmers diverting more cane to jaggery producers as unpaid dues from sugar mills increase.
Global Sugar Consumption
Sugar consumption growth remains slow. This is because of increased awareness of sugar intake, high food price inflation in recent years and the emergence of GLP-1 drugs.
That said, 2026/27 looks set to deliver the strongest year-on-year consumption growth since 2022 – a standout year for consumption as Covid lockdowns ended – with global sugar consumption forecast to rise by around 1 million tonnes. This is a notable shift given consumption has struggled in recent years and is particularly striking against a backdrop of five-year lows in sugar prices.
Production Surplus in 2025/26
For the 2025/26 season, we now project a global production surplus of 5.8 million tonnes, which would be the second-largest sugar production surplus since 2017/18.
Our projections then show a smaller surplus of 1.1 million tonnes for 26/27.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
All figures in million tonnes tel quel
