Insight Focus
The 2026/27 world sugar balance has tightened sharply since last month. We now forecast the market as effectively flat, mainly because we have cut our CS Brazil sugar production forecast as mills continue to favour ethanol over sugar.
2026/27 at a Glance…
All figures in m tonnes tel quel
We forecast global sugar production at 178.9 million tonnes in 2
026/27, down 1.8 million tonnes since last month. We now forecast global consumption at 179.0 million tonnes, down 0.3 million tonnes. This leaves the market effectively flat, compared with the surplus we showed in our May report.
2026/27 Balance Tightens
The main change this month is in Centre-South Brazil, where we have reduced our 2026/27 sugar production forecast to 39.5 million tonnes. Mills are less hedged than in recent years, giving them more flexibility to switch between sugar and ethanol, while weak sugar prices and a strong currency mean ethanol remains attractive in several regions. We have therefore cut our expected sugar mix from 48% to 47%, removing 500k tonnes from our previous CS Brazil sugar production estimate.
We have also cut Mexico’s 2026/27 production forecast. Production will be broadly similar to this season, though dry weather linked to El Niño could create downside risk.
This means 2026/27 no longer has much room for further crop disappointment. A small deficit is not a severe shortage, but it is a much tighter position than last month and makes the balance more sensitive to developments in Brazil, Mexico, India and Thailand later this year.
Global Sugar Production
Global sugar production is set to fall in 2026/27, but at 178.9 million tonnes it remains within the range seen in recent years.
Away from CS Brazil and Mexico, the major 2026/27 production forecasts are broadly stable. China remains at 12.9 million tonnes, India at 28.4 million tonnes and Thailand at 9.8 million tonnes. With the global total now lower, the market is more dependent on these producers delivering close to forecast.
Global Sugar Consumption
Sugar consumption growth remains slow. This is still linked to increased awareness of sugar intake, high food price inflation in recent years and the emergence of GLP-1 drugs.
We now forecast global sugar consumption at 177.9 million tonnes in 2025/26 and 179.0 million tonnes in 2026/27. The 2026/27 number is 0.3 million tonnes lower than last month, but it still implies year-on-year growth of around 1.1 million tonnes. The growth picture is therefore modest, but positive.
Production Surplus in 2025/26 and 2026/27
The 2026/27 balance has tightened sharply since last month. We now forecast the global sugar market as flat, compared with a surplus in the previous May report, as lower production expectations in Centre-South Brazil and Mexico pull the forward balance lower.
This leaves 2026/27 with very little buffer, but at the moment the possible stock drawdown looks modest.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
All figures in million tonnes tel quel
