Insight Focus
English farming faces severe pressure. Falling demand, hostile politics and global markets have cut incomes, while heat has reduced wheat and barley yields. On the bright side, rye has performed better and trials are underway to adapt to pests and weather. The sector now faces economic strain, with many farmers unlikely to survive if reliant on agriculture alone.
What’s Happening on the Farm?
With my style of farming, arable production, it is hard to look around and say there is something positive, or that this is a great profession to be in. Local demand is being shut down, and this is likely to continue.
Meanwhile, national politics say louder and louder that we are not interested in farming or farmers, seemingly of any type. We have a new Secretary of State for DEFRA who said, on getting the job, that agriculture was “at the heart” of Britain’s economic renewal – has anyone got a defibrillator?
Looking further afield, I see that internal politics around the globe are strengthening support for local food production – a more isolationist view – and this is likely to continue as world prices say “we don’t want ag commodities” of any type.
Even in the US, despite strong political support, farm income is dropping to the lowest level in five years and is likely to drop further. With the US President visiting for a couple of days, it is safe to assume that English agriculture will be thrown under that bus again.
It is true that “the cure for low prices is low prices,” but there is an awful lot of blood to flow. At the same time, food inflation is now being blamed for general inflation in the UK.
With harvest done (our combine leaves us), for our combinable crops it is time to investigate soil conditions, plant counts, and so on.
We dig a soil profile pit on at least two fields each year, and I get to climb in and study it. It amazes me how deep plant roots will go, even through compaction. Other fields are tested with a spade.
Having done that work, we form a cultivation plan, which includes FYM and Arthur. We are trying to get our autumn-planted fields ready as quickly as we can. I worry about the autumn storm pattern that has started early this year. Rain has come and probably won’t stop now, but it has allowed weeds to grow, which we can kill before planting. Worryingly, I now hear of glyphosate-resistant ryegrass, ironically being found in “no-till” eco-friendly sites.
What Stage are the Crops at?
Wheat/Rye/Spring Barley
Our wheat yields for harvest ’25 are down on last year, simply because of heat. This robbed the plant of time to take advantage of sunlight and explains why harvest was three weeks early. For us, from the time I started the yield calculation, we lost 2.5 tonnes/ha.
Spring barley was a similar story, though not as bad, and – as is reflected in the poor malting premium – the quality is surprisingly good. Rye was the surprise: yield was above budget, but as the price is below wheat, it’s all a bit sad.
OSR
This crop yielded better than expected, but oil yield was not as high as I might have hoped. Heat was again responsible.
Next year’s crop has been planted and, following recent rain, it has come up. We are running a trial to see if late planting helps with CSFB, but this is only a small trial.
Sugar Beet
My local factory opens in a couple of days and is apparently going to close in March. I’m not sure I agree with the processor’s healthy view of the crop. Value today: we have had only 75% of normal rainfall and three extreme heat events. It’s true the probability forecasts say the autumn will be kind to the crop, but there is an awfully large margin to make up.
Maize
This is a crop I really don’t understand and, consequently, I have put a lot of energy into it this year. I have sought the best advice I can and travelled across the country seeing some very good farmers doing very good things.
We have two crops: the first was planted early (early April) and really hated the heat – it just stopped growing. The second was planted later than I would have liked and missed, arguably, two of the three heat events. The last event was probably kind to the crop.
So, as of today, we are about halfway through harvest. Yields are improving, but budget yield will be hard to make.
What Are Your Biggest Concerns?
English farming is entering a depression. Instead of the standard “5%” falling off the economic model each year, we are going to see many more fall off. If farming is not your principal source of income this doesn’t matter and will, if anything, create opportunity in the coming years.
If farming is your principal source of income, it is going to be very hard for at least three years – and I could argue longer. The New Zealand model, often quoted, was not a happy model for two generations.
I have discussed this with Cecelia, who points out that it is much easier to chase hares by car. With age comes wisdom, apparently.
