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Insight Focus
The US sugar market is steady as output hits a record. Imports from Mexico were cut to the minimum allowed, tightening stocks and nudging beet sugar prices higher despite soft demand. Harvest advanced steadily, with Louisiana cane at decade-high ratings and corn sweetener talks underway.
USDA Projects Record 2025-26 Sugar Output
The US cash sugar market maintained a slow but steady pace during the week ending September 19. Prices were steady to higher, but mostly steady.
In the September 12 WASDE report, the USDA forecast 2025-26 total domestic sugar production at 9.47 million short tons, raw value—up 42,000 short tons from August and up 167,000 short tons from 2024-25.
Source: USDA
Beet sugar production was forecast at 5.3 million short tons, up 36,360 short tons from August, driven by higher yield and area harvested.
The USDA raised the 2025-26 cane sugar production forecast to 4.17 million short tons, up 5,000 short tons from the prior outlook, based on increased forecasts from Florida processors. If realised, cane sugar and total sugar production would reach record highs.
Lower Imports Tighten Stocks, Demand Outlook Stays Soft
As expected, the USDA lowered its projection for 2025-26 imports from Mexico to 220,000 short tons, the lowest level allowed under the US-Mexico suspension agreements. The reduction helped lower the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 16.2% from 17.8% in August. Minor revisions to 2024-25 estimates eased the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 19.8%, the highest since 2001.
Source: USDA
Despite a lack of urgency from users and indications that the US will have ample sugar supplies, Midwest processors raised their 2025-26 bulk refined beet sugar prices to 41c–43c/lb, 1c higher than a week earlier. Beet sugar prices in other regions and cane sugar prices were unchanged for 2025-26. Spot prices also remained steady. Market participants noted that sellers already had enough business secured on the books, reducing the need to chase sales, and could begin narrowing the wide gap between beet and cane sugar prices.
However, the upside was hindered by several pressuring factors. First, the sugar beet harvest was underway, and the sugar cane harvest was expected to begin shortly. Weather remained a factor for both beet and cane crops, and one processor noted that higher prices were helpful in managing demand as harvest progresses through this delicate period.
Overall, the demand outlook remains soft to uncertain. In the September 12 WASDE report, the USDA left unchanged from August both its forecast for 2024-25 deliveries at 12.2 million short tons and its projection for 2025-26 deliveries at 12.1 million short tons. Some processors had expected the USDA to revise next marketing year’s deliveries higher, but the overall outlook appears to be maintaining a subtle downward trajectory for now.
Source: USDA
Harvest Progress Steady, Corn Sweetener Talks Begin
Harvest was progressing for the sugar beet crop. As of September 14, five states reported progress. Condition ratings by the same date were mostly unchanged from a week earlier, while the Louisiana sugar cane crop reached its highest rating in at least a decade.
Negotiations for annual 2026 corn sweetener contracts were either underway or expected to begin. Some buyers remained hesitant, hoping that the expected record-large US corn crop might pressure corn sweetener prices.
