Insight Focus
The US cash sugar market is steady as USDA revises its outlook. Prices were unchanged and trading remained slow, with buyers still cautious and awaiting clearer demand signals. The USDA’s April WASDE slightly lowered 2025–26 US sugar production while raising imports and domestic use forecasts, leaving ending stocks modestly lower.
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Activity in the cash sugar market was slow but steady this week, with prices unchanged.
Most buyers were still assessing the market, contemplating demand outlooks and holding out for lower prices. Some users said they may begin issuing bids this quarter, but a lack of urgency continued to loom over the market.
The USDA, in its weekly Crop Progress report, said 3% of the sugar beet crop in the four major growing states was planted as of April 5, compared with 2% a year earlier and 3% as the five-year average for the date.
US Sugar Outlook Revised in April WASDE
In its April WASDE report, the USDA forecast 2025–26 US sugar production at 9.268 million short tons (8.407 million tonnes), down 12,840 short tons from March, based on beet sugar at 5.06 million short tons (down 33,000 short tons) and cane sugar at 4.207 million short tons (up 20,000 short tons).
The USDA said the decrease in beet sugar was “based on a small downward revision to sucrose recovery and an increase in beet pile shrink estimated by processors, somewhat offset by an increase in sugar from desugared molasses.” If realised, 2025–26 cane sugar production would be a record high, and total sugar production would be the fourth largest on record.
Source: USDA
Total imports in 2025–26 were forecast at 2.512 million short tons, up 85,000 short tons from March based on increases in other program (re-export) and high-tier imports. Other program imports were raised 20% to 300,000 short tons, and high-tier imports were increased 5% to 676,000 short tons. Tariff-rate quota imports, at 1.316 million short tons, and imports from Mexico, at 220,000 short tons, were unchanged from March.
Source: USDA
Total sugar supply in 2025–26 was forecast at 14.269 million short tons, up 72,000 short tons from March but down 74,000 short tons, or 5%, from 2024–25.
Total sugar use forecasts for 2025–26 were raised from March, with exports forecast at 25,000 short tons, down 50% from 50,000 short tons, more than offset by an increase of 94,000 short tons in sugar deliveries for human consumption, to 12.259 million short tons. Total domestic deliveries were forecast at 12.364 million short tons, up 94,000 short tons from March.
Source: USDA
Ending stocks were forecast at 1.88 million short tons, up 2,000 short tons from March but down 610,000 short tons, or 25%, from 2.49 million short tons in 2024–25. The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2025–26 was forecast at 15.17%, down slightly from 15.24% in March and from 19.9% in 2024–25.
For the current year, Mexico’s sugar production was raised by 101,288 tonnes, actual weight, to 5.125 million tonnes, with a corresponding increase in exports to non-US destinations, resulting in no change to 2025–26 ending stocks at 1.068 million tonnes. Imports were unchanged from March at 52,000 tonnes, and domestic use was unchanged at 4.297 million tonnes. Total exports (to the US and other countries) were forecast at 935,000 tonnes.
The corn sweetener market was routine.
