Insight Focus
The US cash sugar market stalled last week, as buyers held back. Buyers remained hesitant to extend coverage, seeing little incentive with spot and forward prices closely aligned and ample supply perceived, while relying on short-term purchases. Delayed beet planting and rising input costs supported firm forward offers, as the May WASDE trimmed production but lifted overall supply through stronger imports.
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Buyers Hold Back as US Cash Sugar Market Stalls
Activity in the cash sugar market was limited this week, with prices unchanged.
Sellers continued to field inquiries, but buyers seemed hesitant to commit. One idea was that values between the spot market and forward offers were too similar to incentivise buyers to extend contracts. With many users continuing to believe that “there was plenty of sugar” in the market, and with demand outlooks still uncertain, buyers saw no reason to commit to packages they may not need when they can rely on fill-in purchases at a similar rate. Some participants were only covering about 10% of their 2027 needs, “just for insurance purposes, because something crazy might happen tomorrow,” one broker said.
Regardless of buyers’ laissez-faire attitudes, suppliers mostly held fast to their forward offers, especially beet sugar processors, due to impending issues with this year’s sugar beet crop. Weather has significantly delayed planting schedules in many sugar beet growing areas. Many growers were able to ramp up planting progress in recent days, but the late planting may negatively impact overall sugar yields.
Beet Planting Lags as Cost Pressures Mount
The USDA said 79% of the sugar beet crop in the top four reporting states was planted as of May 10, still behind the year-ago pace of 90% but ahead of the five-year average of 72% for the date, as producers worked to make up for lost time in the field.
Source: USDA
Aside from weather, talk about forfeitures began to re-enter market conversations. With prices for inputs like fertiliser and gas continuing to climb, the cost of production was starting to outpace the outlook for profit margins. The view was that if forfeitures occur, this may push prices higher due to the reduction in available domestic supply.
May WASDE Trims US Sugar Production, Raises Supply
In the May 12 WASDE report, the USDA pegged 2025–26 US sugar production at 9.239 millio short tons (8.381 million tonnes), down 29,000 short tons from April and down 158,000 short tons, or 1.7%, from 9.397 million short tons estimated a year earlier.
The Department lowered US beet sugar production by 39,000 short tons, which helped offset an 11,000-ton increase in cane sugar production. The USDA projected 2026–27 US sugar production at 8.81million short tons, down 4.6% from 2025–26 and down 6% from 2024–25.
Source: USDA
The forecast for total 2025–26 supply was raised to 14.381 million short tons, up 0.8% from April due to a nearly 6% increase in imports. High-tier tariff (over-quota) imports were estimated at 817,000 short tons, up 21% from April.
Source: USDA
The forecast for 2025–26 deliveries was unchanged at 12.364 million short tons. Ending stocks were raised 6% to 1.992 million short tons, bringing the stocks-to-use ratio to 16.1%, up from 15.2% in April.
Source: USDA
The corn sweetener market was steady.
