Insight Focus
The US ethanol blend set a record in October, topping 11%. Production rebounded in December, supporting corn demand, while inventories edged higher amid slower gasoline consumption. Iowa’s E15 Access Standard took effect January 1, and the USDA projects FY 2026 ethanol exports to reach USD 4.6 billion.
Blend Rate Grows, Export Values Climb
US ethanol accounted for 11.06% of the nation’s gasoline in October, marking the first time in history that the monthly ethanol blend rate has topped 11%, according to the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) said the record-high blend rate reflects the expanding use of E15 and flex fuels such as E85 and should put to rest the myth that a so-called “blend wall” prevents ethanol from making up more than 10% of the gasoline pool.
“The new data from EIA and the Iowa Department of Revenue provide clear evidence that ethanol is continuing to gain market share in the US fuel market as US drivers increasingly choose lower-cost, cleaner-burning E15 and flex fuels like E85,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “The numbers also prove that the fictitious ‘blend wall’ is nothing more than an imaginary barrier created by those who oppose US-made renewable fuels produced from US-grown crops.”
Ethanol Production Rebounds
According to the latest data from the EIA, ethanol production moved higher late in December, offering continued demand for corn even as fuel consumption softened at year’s end. Output rebounded to 1.12 million barrels per day during the week ending December 26, equivalent to 47 million gallons per day, according to EIA data analysed by the RFA.
Source: EIA
Production ran slightly above last year’s level and well ahead of the three-year average, reinforcing a historically strong grind pace. Despite the rebound, inventories continued to build. Ethanol stocks rose to 22.9 million barrels, driven primarily by increases in the Midwest, though total stocks remained below both last year and longer-term averages.
That suggests supply is growing but not yet burdensome. Gasoline supplied, a proxy for ethanol blending demand, declined week over week, reflecting seasonal travel slowdowns.
Source: EIA
The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) said on December 23 in its latest quarterly trade outlook report that it now expects the value of FY 2026 ethanol exports to reach USD 4.6 billion, up from its August forecast of USD 4.5 billion.
FY 2026 began on October 1, 2025, and ends on September 30, 2026. If realized, USD 4.6 billion in ethanol exports would be slightly higher than FY 2025 and up 11% from FY 2024. The report estimates the value of FY 2025 ethanol exports reached USD 4.595 billion, up from USD 4.144 billion in FY 2024, USD 3.486 billion in FY 2023 and USD 3.904 billion in FY 2022.
Source: USDA
Iowa E15 Access Standard Now in Effect
Iowa’s E15 Access Standard went into effect on January 1. The standard requires most gas stations in the state to offer E15 at at least one pump, according to a notice from the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship. The requirement stems from legislation passed by the Iowa Legislature in 2022.
Fuel retailers that have not received a waiver or exemption are being urged to begin upgrading fuelling infrastructure to ensure compliance. Under the law, the Iowa Legislature authorised the department to assess fines of USD 1,000 per day against non-compliant, non-exempt fuel retailers starting January 1, 2026.
Small stations may qualify for an exemption, according to the department. Retailers that are already in compliance are encouraged to voluntarily report their status to the department’s Weights and Measures Bureau and will be removed from future reminder notices. The department said it is “committed to helping convenience stores and fuel retailers understand the law and regulations, as well as the resources available to facilitate compliance and prevent penalties.”
In Iowa, E15 accounted for roughly 25% of total gasoline sales in November, virtually doubling since the start of 2025. With E15’s legal approval in California in October, RFA said it is working with retailers in that state to make the more affordable blend available to drivers as soon as possible.
Source: EIA
