This update is from Sosland Publishing’s Sweetener Report. For more information and subscription details, CLICK HERE.
Insight Focus
The US sugar market received support from the President this week. After threatening sweeping 50% tariffs on all Brazilian imports, President Trump then suggested on social media that there would be a return to the use of cane sugar in Coca-Cola. However, this was a blow to the corn sweetener market.
New Tariff Talk Boosts Market
Cash sugar prices were unchanged with a firm tone in the week ended July 18. Meanwhile, policy updates and social media posts roiled the market.
Many sellers were holding values steady, but at least one processor raised its 2025-26 bulk beet sugar price above 40¢/lb FOB Midwest and cane sugar above 50¢/lb Southeast (1¢/lb above the recent price). Ideas were the proposed August 1 US tariff of 50% on all imports from Brazil had injected some strength into the market.
Sales for 2025-26 were picking up, and sellers noted a boost in spot requests. Some surmised the recent effort to push prices higher may have encouraged hesitant buyers to finally commit before prices climb even higher. Still, coverage for the next marketing year, which begins October 1, trailed that of the past couple years.
The proposed US tariff on Brazil was part of a one-two policy punch delivered by the Trump administration on the US organic sugar market. On July 14, the USDA announced it will no longer allocate any Specialty Sugar Quota volume for organic sugar imports above World Trade Organization minimums. Not all who were using the quota to import organic sugar at lower costs were selling it as organic sugar, and the USDA announcement may have pivoted some buyers back to domestic supply.
“People are still being cautious because they don’t truly know what their demand or carryover from their current contracts is going to be,” one processor said.
Current Prices “Unsustainable”
The trade continued to process the possibility of forfeitures, with some claiming current sugar prices were unsustainable for producers and pinpointing that as one of the reasons for pushing prices higher. While some assert forfeitures will be avoided at all costs, others say it may be inevitable with the market finally trying to normalize to pre-pandemic levels.
The USDA on July 17 posted in the Federal Register the reassignment of company beet and cane sugar allocations for the current year to help reduce some processors’ burdensome stocks, including 136,956 short tons (124,244 tonnes) of beet sugar and 611,752 short tons (554,972 tonnes) of cane sugar, with 500,000 short tons (453,592 tonnes) of cane going to imports already anticipated.
President Trump further roiled the markets with a July 16 post to Truth Social that Coca-Cola agreed to use “REAL Cane Sugar” instead of high-fructose corn syrup. The posting created a media frenzy because of implications of increased sugar demand and lower HFCS demand.
Even though most in the trade did not see the announcement, which was neither confirmed nor denied by Coca-Cola, as proof that Coca-Cola was making a wholesale switch to cane sugar, it was enough to give No. 11 raw sugar futures a boost on June 17. No. 16 futures (domestic raws) already were sharply higher on earlier supportive news.
Good-to-excellent ratings for sugar beets and Louisiana sugar cane as of July 13 were mostly steady to higher.
The corn sweetener market was quiet, although roiled by the president’s comments.
