This update is from Sosland Publishing’s Sweetener Report. For more information and subscription details, CLICK HERE.
Insight Focus
Sugar sales advance slowly amid stable prices. USDA forecasts record-high US sugar production and elevated stocks-to-use ratios, surprising some traders. Spot demand has picked up while sugar crop conditions remain generally strong and corn sweetener markets stay quiet.
Sugar Sales Advance Slowly Amid Stable Prices
Forward cash sugar sales advanced at a slow but steady pace during the week ending August 22, amid stable prices. Meanwhile, the early sugar beet harvest was nearly at hand.
Sugar was still being sold for 2026, but the pace, which had picked up earlier in the month, was beginning to stall as most buyers had already secured adequate volumes. One processor said some major buyers had yet to fully cover their needs, but he believed the hesitation was strategic, as several users overbooked for the current year and were still chewing through supplies that they might have to roll over into next year.
Also, with the current US Department of Agriculture projection for back-to-back record-high domestic sugar production, and with ample global supplies, some users may anticipate that prices will drop once harvest begins, making participation in the spot market next year potentially more financially advantageous.
There is also the hope that US tariffs currently imposed on major sugar suppliers—particularly Brazil—will eventually be eliminated or reduced. For now, however, the 50% tax on Brazilian sugar remains in place. While most imports for the current year were received prior to the tariff, if tariffs remain in effect after October 1, when the new season begins, prices may climb higher.
Traders Monitor WASDE Amid Record Sugar Outlook
The trade is also awaiting potential adjustments to next month’s WASDE report, scheduled for release September 12.
Some in the trade were surprised by this month’s report, which forecast record-high sugar production for both the current year and next year. The August WASDE also projected a remarkably high ending stocks-to-use ratio of 19.9% for this year, up from 17.4% in July and the highest since 2000-01. The USDA also raised the 2025-26 stocks-to-use projection to 17.8% from 13.5%.
Source: USDA
Trade sources indicated that this year’s USDA production number may be too high, while the delivery forecast might be too low. With year-over-year reductions in acres planted to sugar beets, and the projected reduction in yield for sugar cane, some believe the 2025-26 projection for total US sugar production may also be overstated.
Draws of contracted sugar by users have begun to slow. However, one processor said his deliveries were up 8% in June compared with a year ago, and he was hopeful the trend would continue. Demand for spot sugar purchases has also picked up in recent weeks.
Sugar beet good-to-excellent condition ratings as of August 17 were mixed from a week earlier, as the early harvest approached. Louisiana sugar cane ratings continued their gradual week-over-week decline but remained historically high.
The corn sweetener market remained quiet. Annual contracting is expected to begin soon, with buyers looking for lower prices amid record-high crop outturn.
