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Insight Focus
US cash sugar sales remain slow but steady. The USDA forecasts record-high sugar production in 2024-25 and 2025-26, keeping markets well-supplied. The USITC has extended Mexican sugar limits, while harvests continue with mixed ratings and corn sweetener markets prepare for 2026.
Cash Sugar Sales Slow as Supplies Remain Ample
Cash sugar sales were slow but steady following the Labor Day holiday. Prices were unchanged, though at least one trade source said that some sellers were offering next year’s supplies for under 40c/lb.
Despite price pressure from ample stocks, the downside was limited by expectations that any excess 2024-25 beet sugar supplies rolling into the next marketing year, which begins October 1, would be sold first, with new-crop sugar eligible for the 2025-26 loan rates, which are higher than the current year’s rates.
Tariffs on newly imported supplies remained a factor, especially the tariff on most imports from Brazil. Since August 7, imports of cane sugar from Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, have been subject to a 50% tariff.
Nonetheless, it seemed apparent that users were not at risk of running out of sugar anytime soon. In last month’s WASDE report, the USDA forecast total domestic sugar production at 9.4 million short tons, raw value—up 91,000 tons from July and up 73,000 tons from 2023-24.
If realized, beet sugar and total sugar production in 2024-25 would be record highs, while cane sugar and total sugar production would set new record highs in 2025-26. The trade was eager to see if the USD would make any adjustments in the forthcoming WASDE report, set for release on September 12.
Source: USDA
USITC Maintains Mexico Sugar Limits
Additionally, the US International Trade Commission (USITC) decided on August 28 to extend the existing suspension agreement on sugar imports from Mexico, after conducting a required five-year review. Under this agreement, the USITC sets volume limits and minimum prices for Mexican sugar exports to the US in an effort to maintain stability within the US sugar market.
Several states have begun lifting sugar beets, though most plants were processing only enough to keep factories running, as current air temperatures were too warm to pile sugar beets outdoors.
According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, three states reported harvest progress. By August 31, harvest completion was 7% in North Dakota (up from 3% a week earlier), 6% in Minnesota (up from 3%), and 1% in Michigan (none a week earlier).
By the same date, USDA sugar beet crop ratings were mixed: Idaho and Wyoming improved, North Dakota, Oregon and Montana remained unchanged, and Minnesota, Michigan and Colorado declined, with Colorado dropping to 66% from 82% a week earlier. Louisiana sugarcane ratings also declined, dropping to their lowest level in nearly two months, though still historically high.
The corn sweetener market was gearing up to begin negotiations for 2026 annual contracting. Buyers anticipated lower prices compared with a year earlier, based on expectations for record-high 2025 US corn production.
