Wet August Helps Mexican Cane Crop

  • Mexico was graced with above average rainfall in August.
  • This eliminates the risk of drought and means Mexico’s cane crop should align with historical norms in 2020/21.
  • With this, and the reduced US quota, Mexico may export more sugar to the world market next season.

Mexico Graced with Above Average Rainfall in August

  • One dry month will not be enough to hinder Mexico’s cane growth, as the country had strong rainfall up until July.
  • Its cumulative rainfall now aligns with the historical average thanks, in part, to a wet spring.
  • With this, the Mexican sugar market should rebound and perhaps produce a surplus amount of sugar next season, which could then be exported to the world market.
  • This will depend both on how much cane is harvested this season, and what sized quota Mexico receives for US imports.
  • We think Mexico will receive an 808k tonnes quota, 30% of which can be white sugar.
  • If this current estimate holds true, we think 150k tonnes will be exported to the world market.

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