• Mexico was graced with above average rainfall in August.
• This eliminates the risk of drought and means Mexico’s cane crop should align with historical norms in 2020/21.
• With this, and the reduced US quota, Mexico may export more sugar to the world market next season.

Mexico Graced with Above Average Rainfall in August

• Mexico received a good amount of rain August, meaning its cane crop shouldn’t suffer from a lack of rain this summer.
• This came as a relief after Mexico suffered a worryingly dry July.

• One dry month will not be enough to hinder Mexico’s cane growth, as the country had strong rainfall up until July.
• Its cumulative rainfall now aligns with the historical average thanks, in part, to a wet spring.

• With this, the Mexican sugar market should rebound and perhaps produce a surplus amount of sugar next season, which could then be exported to the world market.
• This will depend both on how much cane is harvested this season, and what sized quota Mexico receives for US imports.

• We think Mexico will receive an 808k tonnes quota, 30% of which can be white sugar.
• If this current estimate holds true, we think 150k tonnes will be exported to the world market.

Other Opinions You May Be Interested In…

• Mexico 2019/20 Overview: The Good, The Bad, and The Drought
• The Mexican Cane Crop is Finishing; Are Imports Starting?
• Hot and Dry Mexican Summer Puts Cane at Risk