Adrian Torrebiarte

• US anticipates 152k tonnes shortage of TRQ sugar.
• Brazil, Australia, and Guatemala could receive TRQ re-allocation.
• This means a little less sugar for the world market.

• Guatemala will adopt a 10% ethanol blend from 2025, not 2024 as previously intended.
• Guatemala is already self-sufficient in ethanol production.
• The EU and USA may soon need to import from other sources.

• Mexico’s President ban on GM corn to be contested internationally.
• This could halt USD 3b in trade, primarily American corn arrivals.
• Mexican sugar flows to the U.S. could also be halted.

• The American Climate Prediction Center has confirmed an El Niño this year.
• El Niño should not affect American cane sugar production.
• El Niño could have a negative impact on American beet sugar production.

• The American Climate Prediction Center has confirmed an El Niño this year.
• Dry conditions could cause cane yields to fall in Mexico.
• American wheat and corn should benefit.

· The United States has announced a second TRQ allocation for this year. 

· We now project Mexico to produce around 5.6m tonnes of sugar.  

· Brazil, DR, and Guatemala may be winners from this move.