中国市场周报: 疫情影响下三月销量不佳

761 words / 3.5 minute reading time

  • 三月食糖产销数据已公布,预估19/20榨季最终产量约为1010万吨,比此前预估值减少10万吨,同比减少66万吨。
  • 广西三月销售数据位于历史低位,预估为疫情影响下消费下调的滞后反应。
  • 三月底工业库存预估与去年持平,四月需关注糖厂销售能否改善,以及加工厂的销售意愿。

市场要闻   

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国内白糖期现货行情  

  • 原糖11月合约上周五结算价为10.31美分,周环比下跌7.1%
  • 郑糖主力合约上周五结算价为5289/吨,周环比下跌3.22%
  • 南华广西一级糖平均报价为5605/吨,周环比下跌44/吨,现货升水上涨至317/吨。
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19/20榨季截至三月底产销情况  

  • 截至331日广西、广东和海南均已收榨,剩余云南38家糖厂仍在生产,预估云南云南剩余剩余产糖量约30万吨,全国最终产量预估1010万吨,同比减少约66万吨。
  • 全国3月销量预估为75.23万吨,同比减少50%,虽然去年3月的高销量是因为增值税下调使得需求提前,但今年3月的销量仍然位于过去十年除15/16榨季外的最低位。
  • 我们认为三月销量不佳是消费下调的滞后性影响,四月销量可能仍有压力。  
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