• 2018/19榨季末结转库存预估位于六年低位。
  • 低库存支撑现货表现强劲,基差扩大,带动郑糖上涨。
  • 这可能刺激甜菜糖套保,南方糖厂亦可能提前开榨捕捉高糖价,这意味着市场可能更快面临新糖的供应。 

市场热点回顾

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ZCE & ICE 期货价走势 

  • 国际市场方面投机空头平仓带动原糖期货价格上升,但是13美分仍然是重要的压力位,因为此价位之上会刺激生厂商套保。
  • 国内市场方面节后受到国内大宗商品上涨氛围带动,以及现货库存偏紧的主要因素影响郑糖亦出现上涨势头。

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食糖现货升水走势

  • 得益于库存偏紧,现货市场表现仍然坚挺,南华一级糖升水最高近450/吨,关注基差修复带动郑糖上涨。
  • 本周内新疆和内蒙糖厂预计全部开榨,目前价位可能刺激北方糖套保意愿。

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工业结转库存可能位于六年低位

  • 2018/19榨季末结转库存目前预估仅为58万吨,位于2013/14榨季以来低位。
  • 新糖上市仍需时间,现货市场暂时性短缺,有利于价格企稳。

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放储与进口

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Rosa Li

Rosa graduated from Jinan University in 2012 with a bachelor’s degree in Marketing. Rosa joined CZ in 2014 and has been an analyst for 7 years in our Guangzhou office managing the data capture, analysis and visualisation within the Chinese sugar markets utilising her skills in SQL, Python and VBA while also providing content for our platform CZ App. Rosa is also responsible for the localization of CZ App in China – CZ App WeChat, she also assists with the commercial marketing in China and works towards strategy with the trading team.

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