• The January WASDE note is forecasting a significant increase in beet sugar production in the current season.
  • If these assumptions hold, the US crop would be the second largest domestic crop and the largest cane crop on record.
  • This signals the March release is likely to reduce Mexican quota access to near 1m tonnes (down 100kmt)

January WASDE Release  

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  • The revision and increase in domestic production means supply will increase by 111k short tons in 20/21.
  • As a result, the March WASDE release is likely to revise Mexican access to the US market down to restore stocks.
  • The USDA is mandated in keeping ending stocks at 13.5% of annual consumption; they are currently forecast at 14.4%.
  • Unless current assumptions change, Mexico will likely be the loser of this adjustment as per our Wasde Scenario Planner.
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  • As you can see, Mexican imports would need to reduce by 10% to bring closing stocks closer to 13.5%.
  • This calculator allows users to change current WASDE assumptions and see their impact on the stock projections.
  • It’s free to use and available to all on Czapp in our Interactive Data Section (USDA Dashboard).

Could Consumption Change Things?

  • The USDA is currently forecasting a return to “normal” levels of consumption for 2020/21.
  • This is after the 2019/20 pandemic led to an increase in domestic consumption across the country.
  • It’s possible a further set of restrictive measures in the USA sees a rise in consumption again.

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  • Further restrictive policies, like those currently brought back into place in Europe, may see the US increase domestic consumption.
  • This is because, whilst HFCS consumption has fallen, many sugary household goods saw a boost in demand.
  • An introduction of these measures prior to the March WASDE release could see the USDA increase consumption and therefore maintain the Mexican quota as it is.
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Vincent O’Rourke

Vincent began his career at CZ in 2016 as an analyst in the London Office, focusing on raw sugar flows and the Refineries in North Africa and the Middle East. Since 2019 Vincent has moved to the Miami office, leading the Americas analysis (excluding Brazil) and implementing the new data capture and database processes. Vincent graduated from Edinburgh with a master’s in theology in 2015 and completed a Masters in Emerging Economies from King’s London University in 2016

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