Rainfall Forecast  

CS Daily Rains

  • Dry weather should remain until the end of the month throughout the CS; 
  • This is positive for crushing operations in the region; 
  • However, the dry spell since April started to become a concern for millers, especially in Mato Grosso do Sul state (MS); 
  • At least for now, frost concerns should be over as higher temperatures are forecasted reducing the risk of occurrence; 

Ports Daily Rains

  • In the last days of July, light showers may be seen at Santos ports – which should not be a problem for loading operations; 
  • Paranagua volume is forecasted to be above Santos, but still not enough to pose risk for operations. 

Soil Moisture   

Soil Moisture (25/07/2019)

  • Even though the 1H of July was marked by rains, overall, drought continues to dominate CS weather;  
  • One of the main states affected was MS as reported by Ana on her 3rd Day of Crop Tour report; 
  • This could have a negative impact in agricultural yields for cane that is still in the development phase; 
  • On the other hand, it can be positive for sugar concentration resulting in higher ATR in cane. 

Frost Forecast  

  • Although forecast points for risk of frost in specific areas of MS and PR states by the start of the weekend, higher temperatures should perpetuate until the end of the fortnight, reducing chances of occurrence; 
  • A reminder of impacts of frost: 
    • Frost varies in intensity: low: 3-5°C; medium: 1-3°C; high: -1-1°C; 
    • The impacts of the frost are maximized if the frost lasts more than 2 days; 
    • In addition, its impact on the cane depends not only on the intensity of the frost but on the cane stage as well; 
    • If frost occurs on cane close to the harvesting period it can in fact mature and concentrate the sugar; 
    • Younger cane can be more affected depending on the intensity. Thus, monitoring and sometimes adjusting the harvesting plan is required; 
    • The most affected are young cane, either ratoon or seed. Depending on the harshness of the frost, replanting in the area would be essential.