Analyst Insights

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 15th July 2020

• India’s monsoon rainfall is above average.
• Reservoirs in India’s key sugar-producing states are at their highest levels for the past seven years.
• We think India will produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar next season, just 500k tonnes shy of their 2018/19 record.

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 14th July 2020

CS Brazil – Sugar or Ethanol? 14th July 2020

• The coronavirus pandemic has left approximately 200,000 merchant sailors stranded at sea.
• A cyclone took grains loaders at Paranagua Port offline for a few days last week.
• Customs clearance times at some major Chinese ports have tripled as meat, seafood, and other products are tested for coronavirus.

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 13th July 2020

• The July WASDE indicated that the US Department of Agriculture expects oversupply in the 2019/20 season.
• However, this forecast relies on 1.3m tonnes of sugar coming from Mexico and almost all tariff rate quotas (TRQs) being filled in 2019/20.
• If this projection holds true, Mexico’s access will reduce to 1m tonnes in 2020/21.

• After two slow weeks for spec activity, the No.11 net spec long grew by 20k lots, driven by significant spec buying on the day of the report – which saw price rise by 25 points.  
• This spec buying was facilitated by commercials, who were happy to sell as price surpassed 12c. 
• In White Sugar the net spec long continued its gradual downward trend, mirroring the price as demand falls worldwide.  

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The Czapp News Feed gives you access to all the relevant news for sugar, ethanol, grains, and dairy.

It’s free to use in the Interactive Data section.

Here are some stories it has just picked up online that you don’t want to miss…

Higher ending stocks than expected in the July WASDE made Corn to plummet last Friday in Chicago erasing the gains of the week and closing almost 2% down (September future). BR and EU Corn were higher with the EU Aug future rallying 5%. Wheat had also big gains both in the US and EU as it benefited the most from the July WASDE.  

• Colombia’s locust population has grown following its particularly rainy April and May.
• Whilst locusts have caused worry across South America this year, we do not think they are a threat to Colombia’s cane fields.
• However, the Colombian sugar market is especially vulnerable to any unforeseen disruptions, so further growth in the locust population needs monitoring.