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Analyst Insights Alberto Carmona

116 Insights

Alberto Carmona

Graduated at the University of Seville (Spain) and University of Paderborn (Germany) with a Bachelor in Economics and Business Administration and an Executive MBA from Institute San Telmo (partner school of IESE). Worked in Abengoa Bioenergy from 1999 through 2017 when I founded NixAl Commodities, an Ethanol boutique focused on market intelligence, risk management and engineering. Professional background in financial and commercial activities, promoting and financing renewable energy projects in Europe, Brownfields and Greenfields. I have been active in the international development of Bioethanol since 2001 having lived and worked in The Netherlands, Brazil and U.S., the three main markets, while leading global trading operations, risk management and lobbying.

Brazil’s Corn Woes Start to Show

  • Corn rallied in all geographies last week.
  • This is largely because Brazil’s still suffering from a lack of rainfall.
  • China’s continued buying remains a key factor too.

Alberto Carmona

2 years ago

2 min read

Corn: Brazil Needs Rain, and Fast

  • There’s still no sign of rain in Brazil.
  • Its safrinha crop was downgraded by the USDA, Conab and Agrural last week…will it be even lower?
  • We think this is a real possibility and could also be a reason why corn didn’t fall last week. 

Alberto Carmona

2 years ago

2 min read

Corn: Farmer Hedges at 25-Year High

  • Commercial Shorts (producer hedges) are at their highest level in 25 years.
  • Of course, not all Commercial Shorts in Chicago are US farmers, but the bulk of them are.
  • This suggests that US acreage will be much higher than it was in the last WASDE, slightly offsetting Brazil’s poorer performance.

Alberto Carmona

2 years ago

3 min read

Weather in Brazil and the US Worries Corn Market

  • Weather worries in the US and Brazil were the drivers of last week’s corn rally. 
  • Cold and dry temperatures in the US have threatened the planting pace, whilst dryness in Brazil has hit safrinha crop yields. 
  • The consensus is for a downward revision of Brazil’s second and biggest safrinha corn crop.   

Alberto Carmona

2 years ago

3 min read

China Continues Push for Grains Security

  • The USDA has increased its wheat consumption number for China, with corn losing market share to wheat. 
  • We think China will continue to move towards security of supply as its protein demand is there and stocks are low. 
  • Whether it be for corn, soybeans or wheat, it’ll try and find the best protein combination, depending on prices, to refill its stocks.   

Alberto Carmona

2 years ago

3 min read

Corn Prices Vulnerable to Record Spec Long

  • Almost all commodities including grains are holding record levels of investments funds.
  • This leaves commodities vulnerable to a correction if spec funds decide to exit. 
  • The Chicago Corn average price forecast remains in the range of 4.2 to 4.6 USD/bu.

Alberto Carmona

3 years ago

2 min read

Corn: Higher Prices Here to Stay?

  • Last week’s correction was healthy on one side, as the market has rallied almost 90% since last August.
  • The USDA’s increase of Chinese imports is based on real needs: the rapid increase of its pig herd and the Government’s low stocks.
  • When compared with corn and soybeans, wheat is the only grain that looks well supplied in 2020/21. However, the 9m tonnes of lower ending stocks leaves wheat stock variation just 4m tonnes positive, down from the 13m tonne stock build we had before.

Alberto Carmona

3 years ago

3 min read

Corn Prices Hit Eight-Year High, But Chinese Buying Continues

  • Chicago started the week positive when the USDA confirmed that China had booked 1.36m tonnes of US Corn.
  • The buying continued on Wednesday (680k tonnes), Thursday (1.7m tonnes) and Friday (2.1m tonnes).
  • All in all, China bought 5.8m tonnes of corn in the space of a week. 

Alberto Carmona

3 years ago

3 min read

Grains: The Perfect Bull Story

  • Corn, Wheat and Soybeans have rallied in all markets after a bullish WASDE.
  • Chicago Corn is now comfortably trading above 5 USD/bu, Soybeans are above 14 USD/bu and Wheat is heading for 7 USD/bu.
  • Wheat might even trade higher as Russia, having already set a tax on Wheat exports, seems willing to increase the tax in an effort to cap local prices.

Alberto Carmona

3 years ago

4 min read

Russia Plans to Tax Wheat Exports in Effort to Control Food Inflation

  • The Russian government is thinking about taxing wheat exports.
  • This is because, despite setting an export quota of 17.5m tonnes for all grains, local prices have continued to rise, given the increasing export demand as they are worried about food inflation.
  • The rumored tax could be some 27 USD/mt. 

Alberto Carmona

3 years ago

4 min read

Will La Niña Impact South America’s Grains Crops?

  • The fundamental picture remains unchanged from two weeks ago.
  • Worries surrounding the potential impact of La Niña on South America’s corn and soybean crops continue to grow.
  • Meanwhile, China’s corn buying remains strong as it looks to feed its recovering pig herd and also fulfill the Phase One Trade Agreement.

Alberto Carmona

3 years ago

4 min read

The WASDE Slashes Global Grains Stock Estimates

  • The November WASDE was bullish for corn and soybeans with a significant reduction to the US’ ending stocks.
  • On a global scale, corn stocks were cut by 9m tonnes, soybeans were cut by 2.2m tonnes, and wheat was cut by 1m tonnes.
  • The bulk of the reductions came from the US, but in corn’s case, the USDA also reduced Ukrainian production by a sizable 8m tonnes and EU production by 2m tonnes 

Alberto Carmona

3 years ago

5 min read