Analyst Insights

• European carbon market declines more than 7% after March options expiry.
• Attention moves to annual compliance by end-April.
• EU emissions probably rose in 2022 thanks to higher use of coal to generate power.

• Russia claims the Black Sea Corridor has been extended for 60 days.
• Other signatories claim the extension is for 120 days.
• Russia has proposed a potential export ban for wheat and sunflower products.

• The Netherlands is one of the world’s largest meat exporters.
• But environmental priorities mean the country is shifting away from its focus on farming.
• Both European and Dutch food security will be impacted by the move.

• Both raw and refined sugar futures strengthened over the last week.
• The sugar white premium has strengthened too, now standing at 137USD/mt.
• The CFTC has now fully recovered from a cyber-attack earlier in the year.

Featuring 8 key futures markets that combined add up to more than 50% of the entire weighting of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (23 markets total) and augmented by analysis of the Bloomberg Index and the US Dollar Index, this report offers the preeminent heavyweight commodity sector portfolio.

• Can raw sugar keep rallying while other commodities retreat?
• In the short term sugar supply seems to be constrained.
• There’s also almost no investment in sugar production for the long term either.

• India now bidding well below USD 600 CFR for new DAP arrivals.
• Emerging seasonal demand appears to have triggered a price increase of both prilled and granular urea in South East Asia.
• The global potash market is bearish still awaiting price guidance from the India contract settlement.

• One of the biggest themes for the shipping industry in the 2020s is decarbonisation
• IMO regulations have come into force this year to promote lower emissions.
• But CII – one of the key measures – seems to exacerbate emissions rather than reduce them.

• Maintenance shutdowns lend near-term support to PTA and MEG futures.
• Forward curve for raw material costs moves increasingly into backwardation.
• Schedule and ramp-up of new capacity additions key to price outlook over the coming months.