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Analyst Insights Analyst Insights CS Brazil: Within Expectations, We Maintain 520mmtc

September 10, 2021

1 min read

CS Brazil: Within Expectations, We Maintain 520mmtc

 Main Points 

  • 2H August numbers came out as expected: agricultural productivity weak vs ATR strong.
  • As a result, we continue with our estimates for crushing 520mmt of cane and 32.5mmt of sugar for the 21/22 crop.
  • Anhydrous sales in August reached 887 million liters.

Crop 2021/22 – 2H August 

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Fast Harvest – 43.1mmt 

  • As expected, 43 mmt of cane were processed in the fortnight, an increase of 2.08% over 20/21
  • The accelerated pace is a result of the harvest schedule adjusted by the impact of the frost.
  • According to Unica, the harvest is already in its final stages with many mills expected to close their operations at the end of October.
  • So far, they have been processed in CS 392.6 mmt – a drop of 5.8% compared to the previous year.

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  • Therefore, according to the organization, there are only four fortnights left for the end of the 21/22 crop.
  • The crushing pace should remain accelerated on the range of 30/40 mmt.
  • For now, we maintain our perspective that CS will process 520 mmt.

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  • The lower volume of available sugarcane is a direct consequence of the lowest TCH in the last 10 years.
  • In Unica’s sampling, the accumulated agricultural productivity registered a decrease of 14.3% in relation to the past season: 85 t/ha against 72.9 t/ha.
  • This was mainly a result of severe drought and frost events.

ATR 

  • On the other hand, the plant’s high sugar concentration helped to mitigate part of the effects of low agricultural productivity.
  • Until the second half of August, the accumulated ATR registered was 140.26 kg/tc (+0.65% in relation to the 20/21) cycle.

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  • With a production mix still focused on sugar, CS has so far produced 24.3mmt of the sweetener.
  • The sugar mix is due to the need for mills to honor their sales commitments.
  • With the crop failure, the expectation is that this trend will continue until the end of 21/22.

Ethanol market – anhydrous continues with advantage 

  • Anhydrous continues as a priority in biofuel production given the favorable parity for gasoline (77.3%)
  • In August, 887.10 million liters of anhydrous ethanol were sold – 11.4%, higher than 2020

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