• Q4’18 data shows whites container exports at 445kmt – the lowest of the past 12 years; 
  • Whilst the reduction is in part due to EU competition into West Africa, CS Brazil also saw a significant reduction in sugar availability; 
  • Estimated sugar production for 2018/19 stands at only 8.8mmt – the lowest since 2009/10; 
  • Wha are the perspectives for next season? 

So far… 

Monthly Container Exports

  • Total sugar production in CS Brazil should end at 26.6mmt – 10mmt lower yoy; 
  • Out of this, 8.8mmt is of whites production; 
  • The lower output helps to explain the significant fall in container exports seen this season – apart from slower offtake; 
  • From April until December, container exports totalled 1.5mmt – the lowest level in 10 years;  
  • Q1’19 container exports should follow the same pattern, remaining at around 110kmt/month; 

What to expect for 2019/20 

CS Brazil Production per Sugar Type

  • Lower ethanol prices expected for 2019/20 should change the production mix of CS mills in regards to the previous season – when mills maximized ethanol production; 
  • An increase in cane allocation to sugar production is expected; 
  • However, sugar is not exactly paying more than the biofuel – not max sugar as well; 
  • Although an increase in total sugar production is indeed expected, overall whites availability should remain tight; 
  • If the domestic market proves to be more heated than expected, whites exports from Brazil could follow the same pattern as this season or be even lower. 

Ana Zancaner

Ana graduated from Insper University Sao Paulo in 2013, with a bachelor’s degree in business administration. She joined Czarnikow as an intern in 2013 and is now our senior analyst in our Sao Paulo office. At Czarnikow she is responsible mainly for analysis of the Brazilian sugar and ethanol sector but supporting other consulting requests as well.

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