Brazil Container Exports

  • Q4’18 data shows whites container exports at 445kmt – the lowest of the past 12 years; 
  • Whilst the reduction is in part due to EU competition into West Africa, CS Brazil also saw a significant reduction in sugar availability; 
  • Estimated sugar production for 2018/19 stands at only 8.8mmt – the lowest since 2009/10; 
  • Wha are the perspectives for next season? 

So far… 

Monthly Container Exports

  • Total sugar production in CS Brazil should end at 26.6mmt – 10mmt lower yoy; 
  • Out of this, 8.8mmt is of whites production; 
  • The lower output helps to explain the significant fall in container exports seen this season – apart from slower offtake; 
  • From April until December, container exports totalled 1.5mmt – the lowest level in 10 years;  
  • Q1’19 container exports should follow the same pattern, remaining at around 110kmt/month; 

What to expect for 2019/20 

CS Brazil Production per Sugar Type

  • Lower ethanol prices expected for 2019/20 should change the production mix of CS mills in regards to the previous season – when mills maximized ethanol production; 
  • An increase in cane allocation to sugar production is expected; 
  • However, sugar is not exactly paying more than the biofuel – not max sugar as well; 
  • Although an increase in total sugar production is indeed expected, overall whites availability should remain tight; 
  • If the domestic market proves to be more heated than expected, whites exports from Brazil could follow the same pattern as this season or be even lower.