Insight Focus
Brazil’s per capita energy use could rise 30% by 2034. However, with reforms and major investments in green hydrogen and artificial intelligence, growth could reach 60%. Official projections highlight how policy choices will shape the country’s energy future.
Energy Consumption Could Jump in Brazil
Energy consumption has been steadily increasing in Brazil due to key drivers such as the economic development of the Central-West region, growing demand from agribusiness, and population growth.
In 2024, energy consumption reached a record high of approximately 561,600 GWh. Historically, this volume represents an increase of about 20% since 2015, according to the Energy Research Company (EPE).
Source: EPE
In the coming years, the gradual replacement of carbon-intensive processes with clean alternatives—emphasising efficiency and innovation—should usher in a new cycle of energy expansion.
This projection is based on the approval of new regulations, such as Congress’s approval of the green hydrogen legal framework last year, as well as the growth of important economic sectors.
Data centres are a prime example. The Association of Information and Communication Technology and Digital Technologies Companies expects industry revenues to grow from USD 2 billion in 2024 to USD 3.5 billion in 2029.
Other important factors include Brazil’s abundance of renewable energy sources and a global environment favourable to attracting capital for sustainable projects.
Source: EPE
Three Growth Scenarios for Brazil’s Energy
Studies by Envol Energy Consulting outline three scenarios for energy demand in Brazil over the coming decades.
The current trajectory, based on projections from EPE’s 2034 10-Year Energy Plan, assumes modest growth, with per capita grid consumption stabilising at around 4,200 kWh per year in 2034 — about 30% higher than in 2024.
The moderate scenario projects gradual growth, with per capita consumption reaching 4,778 kWh per year in 2034 and 5,275 kWh per year in 2052, aligning with international standards. By 2034, projected growth would be nearly 50%.
The accelerated scenario estimates a more vigorous leap, with per capita consumption of 5,123 kWh per year in 2034 (an increase of around 60% compared to 2024) — driven by aggressive electrification policies, tax incentives and external financing.
Source: Envol Energy Consulting, EPE
Economic Reforms Key to Change
The key to determining which scenario becomes reality will depend on the country’s ability to align public policies with the opportunities of the green economy.
The accelerated expansion scenario is based on a strong adoption of AI, green hydrogen, and changes in production processes to increase energy efficiency.
For this more optimistic projection to materialise, however, Brazil would also need to implement more pro-market macroeconomic reforms, such as reducing the tax burden for companies that adopt energy transformation measures in their production processes.
In the moderate scenario, Brazil would still be a significant hub for AI but would see green hydrogen projects on a smaller scale.
Brazil boasts notable comparative advantages, distinguished by its abundance of renewable energy sources and extensive natural resources. However, the country’s history shows challenges in transforming these strengths into concrete results.
The bureaucratic structure and the lack of effective public policies capable of fostering a competitive business environment ultimately hinder significant progress in the country. To avoid wasting another strategic opportunity, a coordinated effort between the government and the private sector will be essential.
The timing is favourable: the combination of a clean energy matrix and international demand for green products could finally position Brazil at the forefront of a new cycle of sustainable energy growth.
