Insight Focus
We forecast that global sugar production could hit 184.5 million tonnes in 2025/26. This would be the second highest production on record. This comes despite continued declines in production in India due to early mill closures.
2025/26 at a Glance…
All figures in m tonnes tel quel
Global Sugar Production
Our estimate for global sugar production has increased by 0.1 million tonnes since our last report. We think that global sugar production will hit 184.5 million tonnes in 2025/26.
Despite reducing our production estimate for India – down from 30.2 million tonnes to 28.6 million tonnes – we have slightly increased our global production figure to 184.5 million tonnes for 2025/26. This is due to increases in several other Asian countries.
We have increased our production forecast for Pakistan by an additional 0.8 million tonnes since our last update – going from 6.7 million tonnes to 7.5 million tonnes. The crop has performed better than expected, with 7.2 million tonnes already produced by 15th March – almost a million tonnes more than at the same point last year.
We have also increased our production number for Thailand by 0.4 million tonnes since our last update – now at 11.5 million tonnes. The latest crushing results show sucrose levels in the cane have been better than expected.
We have increased our production number for China by 0.3 million tonnes since our last update. The 25/26 crop continues to improve, and we now expect at least 12.3 million tonnes of sugar production.
The risk of a strong El Niño event in Brazil remains a key watch point. Should one materialise, the main concern for CS Brazil would be heavier rainfall during the peak season, resulting in more stoppage days, lower ATR, and a potential shift toward greater ethanol production by mills.
Global Sugar Consumption
Our estimate for global sugar consumption in 2025/26 is up by 0.4 million tonnes and now stands at 178.2 million tonnes.
The 0.4 million tonne upward revision to our consumption estimate partly reflects Russian sugar consumption being stronger than we had previously thought. We had originally adjusted due to the effects of the ongoing Ukraine war and the pressure low oil prices placed on the broader economy, but we now feel that adjustment was too severe and have revised accordingly.
That said, longer-term challenges to consumption growth remain, including greater awareness of sugar intake, tighter regulation of sugary foods and drinks, and the increasing adoption of GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
Production Surplus in 2025/26
We now project a global production surplus of 6.3 million tonnes, which would be the second-largest sugar production surplus since 2017/18.
Our projections then show a smaller surplus of 1.4 million tonnes for 26/27.
Production Update: India
We have recently decreased our production forecast again for India to 28.6 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season – down from 30.2 million tonnes previously.
The 2025/26 crush is coming to an end faster than expected. As recently as January, production was running approximately 20% ahead of last year and was among the highest on record at that point in the season. However, by mid-March output had reached only 26.2 million tonnes – around two million tonnes below the levels seen between 2022 and 2024.
The key driver is farmers diverting cane to jaggery producers as unpaid dues from sugar mills accumulate, causing mills to close earlier than normal. We will continue to monitor the end of the crush closely in case further revisions to our estimate are necessary.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
All figures in million tonnes tel quel
