• Dry weather allowed mills to keep the strong pace and concentrate sugar within cane.
  • As of 16th of October, CS processed 538mmt of cane and produced 34.7mmt of sugar.
  • However, the same weather could negatively impact cane development for next season

Summary Table 1H October

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Crushing Pace Still Strong

  • The dry weather has allowed a strong operating pace,resulting in 37mmt of cane processed in the fortnight.
  • Also, it favoured a high sugar content (ATR) 164kg, 10kg/ton above yoy.
  • So far, mills have processed 538mmt cane – 5.1% up yoy
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  • This led to an cumaltive sugar production of 34.7 mmt, acumulative sugar mix of 46.9%.

Dry Weather and More Sugar

  • We have said it before, and we will say it again: weather has been extremely dry this season.
  • In 198 days of crop, only 6.7 days were lost due to rains.
  • The effect has been a massive increase in sugar concentration, with ATR reaching the cumulative of 144kg/ton – the highest in 14 years.
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  • Agricultural yields on the other hand have not suffered with adverse weather, with cumulative TCH (ton of cane per hectare) showing a 3.3% increase.
  • We believe that this is a result of younger cane and increase of maintenance of the cane fields.
  • The result is a likelihood of total crush in CS reaching a total of around 595mmt in 20/21.
  • More cane and massive ATR results in more sugar availability…

The Dry Spell Haunts Next Crop  

  • However, in the second half October, rains returned to the Center-South after months of drought.
  • This provided some relief for cane fields that were suffering from hydric stress.
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  • Despite the fact that sugarcane is a resilent culture and recovers fast, the low volume of rains may be insufficient to offset the poor development.
  • This could compromise cane availability for the 21/22 season.
  • If so, 21/22 beginning could be delayed generating a long inter-crop period.

Ethanol Market

  • Mills’ Hydrous domestic sales registered 863 m litres in October- 14% decrease regarding the same period from last year.
  • Despite recovery in the ethanol demand, fuel sales are still low.
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